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本帖最后由 Ragasa 于 2026-2-4 04:14 编辑
AWIO20 FMEE 021143
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2026/02/02 A 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Bulletins WTIO24 017/09 and WTIO30 018/09 issued at 06 UTC sur la Forte Tempete Tropicale FYTIA. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin has a near-equatorial trough (NET) configuration in the eastern part of the basin, oscillating between 8oS and 12oS. Convection is moderate over the southern part of this TM within a low-pressure circulation around 65oE and within another circulation over the far east of the basin. Moderate to strong convection is also located near the FYTIA system between Reunion and Madagascar and over the northern Mozambique Channel.
Over the next five days, a succession of Equatorial Rossby waves could enhance convective activity within the TM and bring vorticity precursors within the TM over the center and far east of the basin.
Moderate Tropical Storm FYTIA :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position : 21.8S / 52.9E
Movement : SE, 11 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 50 kt
Estimated central pressure : 992 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.
In the center of the basin southwest of the Chagos Archipelago :
A low-pressure system currently located at 10.5oS 65.5oE is intensifying in connection with the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave over the center of the basin. This circulation should encounter environmental conditions favorable to its development, with good surface convergence on the equatorial side, low vertical wind shear, and good divergence at altitude on the polar side of the circulation. All of the various ensemble and AI forecast models are in good agreement and predict the development of this low-pressure circulation within 2 to 3 days.
Subsequently, the dispersion in the forecast trajectories of this system between the different models remains too significant to specify the regions that will be impacted at these distant time scales.
The risk of a moderate tropical storm forming is moderate until Wednesday, February 4, then high from Thursday, February 5, in the southwest of the Chagos Archipelago.
Over the far eastern part of the basin:
A low-pressure system could form over the far east of the basin over the next few days in connection with the passage of a second equatorial Rossby wave. Strong vertical wind shear and weak low-level convergence are expected to limit its development at the beginning of the week, but these conditions are likely to improve slightly by midweek. As a result, some members of the ensemble and AI forecast models suggest that this circulation will develop from Thursday onwards.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes very low from Thursday, February5. on the far east of the basin.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 60% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 60% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-3 02:35
发表于 2026-2-3 04:05
