MEDIUM - 纽埃以西热带扰动08F(99P) - 19.1S 172.3W

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 301230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/301230Z-310600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. AANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S
170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C).  
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P
MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T1.5，JTWC亦分析T1.5

TXPS22 KNES 301219
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  30/1130Z
C.  16.4S
D.  170.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/MHS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT DUE TO PULSING IRREGULAR CONVECTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT
WAS MADE TO THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    30/0916Z 16.3S 170.8W MHS
...LEE

TPPS12 PGTW 301230
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 30/1130Z
C. 16.34S
D. 170.95W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

TPPS12 PGTW 301242 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 30/1131Z
C. 16.34S
D. 170.95W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED SENSOR.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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ABPW10 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/301500Z-310600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301217Z ASMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P MAINTAINING
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS12 PGTW 301451
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 30/1430Z
C. 16.58S
D. 170.83W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD及JTWC 18Z分析均维持T1.5

TXPS22 KNES 301807
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  30/1730Z
C.  17.0S
D.  170.8W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE
MET EQUALS 1.0 AND THE PT EQUALS. 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
THE IRREGULAR/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

TPPS12 PGTW 301813
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 30/1730Z
C. 17.00S
D. 171.10W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5.
PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升至T2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 302117
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 30/2030Z
C. 18.17S
D. 171.59W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 302316 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.4S
171.6W AT 302100UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. TD08F LIES IN A LOW UPPER DIVERGENT AND LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW TO LOW.

*********************************************************************
******

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升至T2.0

TXPS22 KNES 310024
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  30/2330Z
C.  18.0S
D.  171.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE
MET EQUALS 1.5 AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
THE IRREGULAR/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T1.5/2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 310231
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 31/0230Z
C. 19.61S
D. 171.74E
E. THREE/GOES18
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0.
PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZJAN2026-010600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 136.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 170.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TONGA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) QUICKLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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