LOW - 澳大利亚北领地近海98P - 15.2S 137.1E

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JTWC 06Z分析认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 300531
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/0530Z
C. 16.81S
D. 136.72E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 26.9S 171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 292100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. AANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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SSD 06Z分析亦认定中心在陆地上

TXPS21 KNES 300552
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)
B.  30/0530Z
C.  16.7S
D.  136.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  OVERLAND
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS
OFFSHORE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

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JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 300833
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/0830Z
C. 16.81S
D. 136.65E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

pocketbox

Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U has a Moderate risk of developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

• 18U is currently located over land near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria.
• The system may continue to drift over land and track west, but if it moves out over Gulf of Carpentaria waters there is an increasing chance it could intensify into a tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week.
• Given the uncertainty in the future track of 18U, the overall risk of a tropical cyclone is Moderate.
• Next week, 18U may move westwards across the northern NT and the Kimberley.
• There is potential for increased rainfall affecting Far North Queensland, the Gulf Country and the adjacent Northern Territory associated with 18U. People in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings for updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:27 am UTC

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JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 301233
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/1130Z
C. 16.75S
D. 136.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 301512
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/1430Z
C. 16.95S
D. 135.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 301816
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/1730Z
C. 17.00S
D. 135.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 302112
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 30/2030Z
C. 17.07S
D. 134.38E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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JTWC 03Z分析认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 310237
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 31/0230Z
C. 17.11S
D. 134.10E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER