TCFA - 卡奔塔利亚湾18U(92P) - 14.0S 141.1E

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Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U a moderate risk of developing to a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

• A tropical low (18U) lies in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to move generally southwards in the coming days.
• Interactions with land and the Cape York Peninsula may limit the chances of this tropical low developing.
• If tropical low 18U stays over Gulf of Carpentaria waters there is a Moderate chance of developing to a tropical cyclone from Saturday afternoon and during early next week.
• Residents of north Queensland and eastern Northern Territory should monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
  

Last updated
23 minutes ago, 08:31 am UTC

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Tropical Low 18U

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-23 15:07
JTWC 06Z分析认定中心在陆地上，SSD分析升至T2.0

在陆地上，又错过了升格的机会

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 230911
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NE OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 23/0830Z
C. 14.75S
D. 141.77E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD及JTWC 12Z分析均认定中心在陆地上

TXPS28 KNES 231152
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  15.5S
D.  141.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  OVERLAND
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI
H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS
OFFSHORE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/1033Z 15.5S 141.6E GMI
...MONAGHAN

TPPS12 PGTW 231217
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 23/1130Z
C. 14.90S
D. 141.85E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 231459
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 23/1430Z
C. 15.20S
D. 142.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1141Z  14.80S  141.80E  MMHS
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 231815
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 23/1730Z
C. 15.74S
D. 141.48E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 232056
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 23/2030Z
C. 15.90S
D. 141.38E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

pocketbox

WTPS21 PGTW 240230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 230230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, SUPPORTING A CENTER POSITION OVER LAND. A 232353Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LLCC, WITH OUTER BANDS EXTENDING WELL
OUT TO SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTLINE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, FOR DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
LAND. HOWEVER, A BRIEF TRACK BACK OVER WATER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 232358
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 23/2330Z
C. 15.47S
D. 141.66E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS12 PGTW 240308
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 15.54S
D. 141.70E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER