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科科斯群岛西南三级强热带气旋“詹纳”(11U/12S.Jenna) - JTWC:90KT

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ygsj24

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发表于 2026-1-4 18:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 5:43 pm WST on Sunday 4 January 2026

Headline:
Developing Tropical Low 11U to impact Cocos (Keeling) Islands as it passes
close by on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 3:30 pm CCT:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 8.4 degrees South 95.5 degrees East,
estimated to be 445 kilometres north northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: east at 33 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 11U is developing well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. It has been moving to the southeast and is expected to start heading
southwards early Monday morning.

The system is expected to move close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during
Monday with gales likely on the eastern side of the tropical low. The track is
most likely to the east of Cocos (Keeling) Islands reducing the risk of gales.
However if the system was to take a track closer to or west of the Islands,
there remains a risk of gales impacting the Islands. By Tuesday the system will
be moving southwest and away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over Cocos (Keeling)
Islands from Monday morning, if the system takes a track closer to or west of
the Islands.

Rainfall will increase during Monday and may be heavy if the system takes a
track closer to or west of the Islands.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm CCT Sunday 04 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr4 pm January 4tropical low8.4S95.5E35
+6hr10 pm January 4tropical low9.1S96.5E60
+12hr4 am January 5tropical low10.0S97.2E80
+18hr10 am January 5tropical low11.1S97.5E90
+24hr4 pm January 5tropical low12.2S97.6E105
+36hr4 am January 6tropical low14.0S97.1E125
+48hr4 pm January 6215.5S95.8E140
+60hr4 am January 7116.1S94.3E155
+72hr4 pm January 7tropical low16.5S92.6E190

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发表于 2026-1-5 04:55 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 2:37 am WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Developing Tropical Low 11U likely to pass close to Cocos (Keeling) Islands on
Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 12:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.7 degrees South 96.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 275 kilometres north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 11U is developing to the north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and
continues to move towards the southeast. It is expected to turn southwards
early Monday morning and move close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during
Monday, with gales likely on the eastern side of the tropical low.

Current forecasts indicate the system is most likely to pass just to the east
of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. However, if the system tracks closer to or west
of the islands, there is an increased risk of gales impacting the islands.

By Tuesday, the system will move to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
and turning southwest, away from the islands.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over Cocos (Keeling)
Islands from Monday morning, particularly if the system tracks to the west of
the Islands.

Rainfall is expected to increase during Monday and may become heavy, if the
system takes a track to the west of the islands.

Seas will become rough as the tropical low approaches the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands from the north. The storm tide may cause flooding of low-lying areas
and strong currents in the lagoon.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 am CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr1 am January 5tropical low9.7S96.8E55
+6hr7 am January 5tropical low10.7S97.2E80
+12hr1 pm January 5tropical low11.9S97.3E95
+18hr7 pm January 5tropical low13.0S97.2E110
+24hr1 am January 6tropical low14.0S96.7E120
+36hr1 pm January 6115.4S95.4E140
+48hr1 am January 7216.3S93.9E155
+60hr1 pm January 7116.8S92.2E185
+72hr1 am January 8tropical low17.0S90.6E220

  1. AXAU01 APRF 041847
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 1847 UTC 04/01/2026
  6. NAME: TROPICAL LOW
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 1800 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 9.7S
  10. LONGITUDE: 96.8E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHEAST (127 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 14 KNOTS (26 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 180 NM (335 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  05/0000: 10.7S  97.2E:     040 (080):  035  (065): 1001
  34. +12:  05/0600: 11.9S  97.3E:     050 (095):  035  (065): 1001
  35. +18:  05/1200: 13.0S  97.2E:     060 (110):  035  (065): 1001
  36. +24:  05/1800: 14.0S  96.7E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  998
  37. +36:  06/0600: 15.4S  95.4E:     075 (140):  045  (085):  995
  38. +48:  06/1800: 16.3S  93.9E:     085 (155):  050  (095):  992
  39. +60:  07/0600: 16.8S  92.2E:     100 (185):  045  (085):  995
  40. +72:  07/1800: 17.0S  90.6E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  997
  41. +96:  08/1800: 16.7S  86.6E:     160 (300):  030  (055): 1004
  42. +120: 09/1800:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. TROPICAL LOW 11U HAS CONSOLIDATED MORE RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
  45. IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE (LLCC). THE
  46. SYSTEM HAS BEEN ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
  47. CLOSE TO THE COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS ON MONDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
  48. GALE-FORCE WINDS. POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
  49. PERSISTENCE FROM AN EARLIER FIX USING 1422 UTC ASCAT PASS.

  51. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS DT=2.5 USING A CURVED BAND PATTERN (0.4 WRAP). MET IS
  52. 2.0 BASED ON A D 24-HOUR TREND, PT IS 2.0 WITH FT=2.0 AND CI=2.0. OBJECTIVE
  53. GUIDANCE (1-MINUTE MEAN) IS NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

  55. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND LARGE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE
  56. NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
  57. CONVECTION, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO
  58. NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CIMSS ~30 KT). RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE
  59. SHOWN INCREASED PERSISTENCE NEAR THE CENTRE, SUGGESTING GRADUAL ORGANISATION.

  61. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS 11U MOVES PAST THE COCOS (KEELING)
  62. ISLANDS, SUPPORTED BY DECREASING WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
  63. PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
  64. CYCLONE INTENSITY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
  65. 11U IS TEMPORARILY FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT
  66. BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
  67. WATERS.

  69. TROPICAL LOW 11U IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST BEFORE TURNING
  70. SOUTHWARDS EARLY MONDAY AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
  71. TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE COCOS (KEELING)
  72. ISLANDS DURING MONDAY, MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT WESTWARD
  73. DEVIATION OF THE TRACK REMAINS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
  74. IMPACTS.

  76. BY TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS
  77. AS STEERING BECOMES DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH.

  79. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  80. ==
  81. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 05/0130 UTC.=
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发表于 2026-1-5 04:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-5 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041751ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMAION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 9.7S 96.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 96.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 12.0S 97.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 14.1S 97.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 95.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 94.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.1S 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.9S 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 97.1E.
04JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 041800).//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 042100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING
  4. NR 001//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.7S 96.9E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. TC 12S HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST SIX
  18. HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
  19. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
  20. OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN A 041420Z
  21. METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
  22. CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND
  23. APRF AND THE 041420Z ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
  24. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 35
  25. KTS EVIDENT WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DEPICTED
  26. IN THE ASCAT DATA.

  28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041420Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
  29. AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
  32. THE NORTHEAST

  34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  35.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  36.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  37.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 041800Z

  40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  41.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

  45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  46.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  53. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

  55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
  56. NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
  57. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER, A
  58. BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
  59. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, INITIALLY GUIDING THE SYSTEM
  60. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD A GENERALLY
  61. WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 48. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
  62. ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
  63. CONDITIONS INCLUDING A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
  64. AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN
  65. INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD AND APPROACHES THE EDGE OF
  66. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, TRACKING BELOW THE ASSOCIATED PERIPHERAL FLOW.
  67. PERSISTENT SHEAR AND ENCROACHMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING
  68. ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

  70. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
  71. GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND ASSOCIATED
  72. VORTEX TRACKERS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
  73. SPREAD INCREASES IN BOTH THE ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK DIRECTIONS DUE
  74. TO DIFFERING PREDICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
  75. STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
  76. FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ITS ORIENTATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
  77. AND THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
  78. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD,
  79. INDICATING LIMITED NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY STEADY
  80. DISSIPATION AS TC 12S ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

  82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  83.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
  84.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  85.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
  86.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
  87. NNNN
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发表于 2026-1-5 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 5:44 am WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Developing Tropical Low 11U likely to pass close to Cocos (Keeling) Islands on
Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 3:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.2 degrees South 97.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 225 kilometres north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 11U is developing to the north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and
continues to move towards the southeast. It is expected to turn southwards
early Monday morning and move close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during
Monday, with gales likely on the eastern side of the tropical low.

Current forecasts indicate the system is most likely to pass just to the east
of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. However, if it tracks closer to or west of the
islands, then there is an increased risk of gales impacting the islands.

By Tuesday, the system will move to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
and turning southwest, away from the islands.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over Cocos (Keeling)
Islands from Monday morning, particularly if the system tracks to the west of
the Islands.

Rainfall is expected to increase during Monday and may become heavy, if the
system takes a track to the west of the islands.

Seas will become rough as the tropical low approaches the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands from the north. The storm tide may cause flooding of low-lying areas
and strong currents in the lagoon.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 am CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr4 am January 5tropical low10.2S97.2E55
+6hr10 am January 5tropical low11.5S97.4E75
+12hr4 pm January 5tropical low12.6S97.4E95
+18hr10 pm January 5tropical low13.6S97.0E110
+24hr4 am January 6tropical low14.4S96.5E120
+36hr4 pm January 6115.7S95.2E135
+48hr4 am January 7216.3S93.6E150
+60hr4 pm January 7116.7S91.8E170
+72hr4 am January 8tropical low16.6S89.9E200

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发表于 2026-1-5 09:05 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 8:48 am WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 11U to pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands today.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 6:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South 97.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 145 kilometres north northeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: south southeast at 25 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 11U is developing to the north northeast of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. It is expected move in a southerly direction today, and should pass
just to the east of the islands. Gales are likely on the eastern side of 11U
during today, possibly extending to the western side this evening as 11U
develops.

By Tuesday morning, 11U will be to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
turning southwest and moving further away.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over Cocos (Keeling)
Islands during this morning if the system tracks over or to the west of the
Islands. During this afternoon and evening, gales could also occur over the
islands if 11U develops into a tropical cyclone. Winds should then start to
ease overnight.

Heavy rainfall is expected today as 11U passes by, before easing overnight.

Seas will become rough during today, however the tide is unlikely to exceed the
normal high tide mark.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:30 am CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr7 am January 5tropical low11.0S97.4E35
+6hr1 pm January 5tropical low12.2S97.5E60
+12hr7 pm January 5113.3S97.3E75
+18hr1 am January 6114.2S96.8E95
+24hr7 am January 6214.9S96.3E105
+36hr7 pm January 6216.0S94.9E130
+48hr7 am January 7216.6S93.2E150
+60hr7 pm January 7116.9S91.4E180
+72hr7 am January 8tropical low16.7S89.5E210

  1. AXAU01 APRF 050057
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 0057 UTC 05/01/2026
  6. NAME: TROPICAL LOW
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 0000 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 11.0S
  10. LONGITUDE: 97.4E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHEAST (147 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 14 KNOTS (25 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 110 NM (205 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 240 NM (445 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  05/0600: 12.2S  97.5E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  998
  34. +12:  05/1200: 13.3S  97.3E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  997
  35. +18:  05/1800: 14.2S  96.8E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  995
  36. +24:  06/0000: 14.9S  96.3E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  992
  37. +36:  06/1200: 16.0S  94.9E:     070 (130):  060  (110):  985
  38. +48:  07/0000: 16.6S  93.2E:     080 (150):  060  (110):  985
  39. +60:  07/1200: 16.9S  91.4E:     100 (180):  045  (085):  995
  40. +72:  08/0000: 16.7S  89.5E:     115 (210):  035  (065): 1000
  41. +96:  09/0000: 16.2S  85.2E:     160 (295):  030  (055): 1004
  42. +120: 10/0000:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS DT=3.0 USING A CURVED BAND PATTERN (0.6-0.7 WRAP). MET
  45. IS 3 BASED ON A D+ 24-HOUR TREND, PT IS 3.0 WITH FT/CI=3.0. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
  46. AT 2300 UTC (1-MINUTE MEAN) HAS STARTED WITH ADT 43 KNOTS, AIDT 35 KNOTS,
  47. DPRINT 30 KNOTS, DMINT (1912UTC) 30 KNOTS AND SATCON UNAVAILABLE. INTENSITY IS
  48. SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH GALES CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS.

  50. THE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL
  51. CENTRE NOW LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BROADLY FAVOURABLE
  52. WITH WARM SSTS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND DEEP
  53. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM THE NE.

  55. TROPICAL LOW 11U IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A
  56. TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO
  57. THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE UPPER SUPPORT AND
  58. 11U IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
  59. WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE IT COULD REACH HURRICANE FORCE. BY WEDNESDAY
  60. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN IS FORECAST TO
  61. INCREASE SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF
  62. 11U SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY.

  64. TROPICAL LOW 11U IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM
  65. THE MONSOON BEING THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
  66. EAST BECOMING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
  67. GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS  AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST
  68. OF THE COCOS ISLANDS DURING MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
  69. SOUTHWARDS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
  70. TUESDAY. 11U SHOULD THEN MOVE WESTWARDS AND BE OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION BY
  71. LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

  73. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  74. ==
  75. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 05/0730 UTC.=
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积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-5 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:54 am WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 11U to pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands today.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 9:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South 97.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 90 kilometres northeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: south at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 11U is developing to the northeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
It is expected move in a southerly direction today, and should pass just to the
east of the islands. Gales are likely on the eastern side of 11U during today,
possibly extending to the western side this evening as 11U develops.

By Tuesday morning, 11U will be to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
turning southwest and moving further away.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over Cocos (Keeling)
Islands later this morning if the system tracks over or to the west of the
Islands. During this afternoon and evening, gales could also occur over the
islands if 11U develops into a tropical cyclone. Winds should then start to
ease overnight.

Heavy rainfall is expected today as 11U passes by, before easing overnight.

Seas will become rough during today, however the tide is unlikely to exceed the
normal high tide mark.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr10 am January 5tropical low11.6S97.4E35
+6hr4 pm January 5tropical low12.7S97.2E60
+12hr10 pm January 5113.7S96.9E75
+18hr4 am January 6114.6S96.3E90
+24hr10 am January 6215.2S95.6E100
+36hr10 pm January 6216.1S94.2E120
+48hr10 am January 7216.7S92.5E135
+60hr10 pm January 7117.1S90.9E155
+72hr10 am January 8tropical low17.0S89.1E190

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积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-5 15:05 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 2:50 pm WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) has formed as it passes just to the east of the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Jenna 11U at 12:30 pm CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South 97.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 60 kilometres east of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: south at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) has formed just to the east of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. It is expected to move in a southerly direction today, and may produce
gales over the islands during this afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday morning, Jenna will be to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
turning southwest and moving further away.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible over the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands during this afternoon and evening. Winds should then start to
ease overnight.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue as Jenna passes by, before easing
overnight.

Seas will become rough during today, however the tide is unlikely to exceed the
normal high tide mark.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 pm CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr1 pm January 5112.2S97.4E35
+6hr7 pm January 5113.2S97.2E60
+12hr1 am January 6114.1S96.7E75
+18hr7 am January 6214.9S96.2E90
+24hr1 pm January 6215.6S95.5E100
+36hr1 am January 7216.3S94.0E120
+48hr1 pm January 7216.8S92.2E140
+60hr1 am January 8tropical low16.8S90.3E165
+72hr1 pm January 8tropical low16.6S88.4E195

  1. AXAU01 APRF 050653
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 0653 UTC 05/01/2026
  6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 0600 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 12.2S
  10. LONGITUDE: 97.4E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH (180 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 90 NM (165 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 110 NM (205 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM)
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 20 NM (35 KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 200 NM (370 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  05/1200: 13.2S  97.2E:     030 (060):  040  (075):  991
  34. +12:  05/1800: 14.1S  96.7E:     040 (075):  045  (085):  990
  35. +18:  06/0000: 14.9S  96.2E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  988
  36. +24:  06/0600: 15.6S  95.5E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  987
  37. +36:  06/1800: 16.3S  94.0E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  985
  38. +48:  07/0600: 16.8S  92.2E:     075 (140):  055  (100):  989
  39. +60:  07/1800: 16.8S  90.3E:     090 (165):  040  (075):  997
  40. +72:  08/0600: 16.6S  88.4E:     105 (195):  030  (055): 1003
  41. +96:  09/0600:             :              :            :
  42. +120: 10/0600:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA (11U) HAS FORMED CLOSE TO THE COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS.

  46. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS DT=3.0 USING A CURVED BAND PATTERN (0.7 WRAP). MET IS
  47. 3.0 BASED ON A D+ 24-HOUR TREND, PT IS 3.0 WITH FT/CI=3.0. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
  48. AT 0530 UTC (1-MINUTE MEAN) HAS STARTED WITH ADT 45 KNOTS, AIDT 35 KNOTS,
  49. DPRINT 41 KNOTS, DMINT (2356UTC) 30 KNOTS AND SATCON UNAVAILABLE. SURFACE
  50. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEARBY COCOS ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN WIND
  51. SPEEDS TO NEAR GALES AT TIMES WITH A SUDDEN DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENT
  52. WITH THE CENTRE JUST TO THE EAST, THE LOWEST PRESSURE RECORDED WAS ABOUT 992
  53. HPA. INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.

  55. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WRAPPED AROUND
  56. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BROADLY FAVOURABLE WITH WARM SSTS,
  57. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
  58. OF AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM THE NE.  THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF
  59. THE SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE UPPER SUPPORT AND JENNA IS
  60. FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY,
  61. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IT COULD REACH HURRICANE FORCE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
  62. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
  63. SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF JENNA
  64. SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY.

  66. JENNA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM BEING
  67. STEERED BY THE MONSOON TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN
  68. STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS AND CURRENTLY PASSING TO
  69. THE EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, JENNA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
  70. AND DURING TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SOUTHWARDS MOTION WITH A
  71. TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. JENNA SHOULD THEN
  72. MOVE WESTWARDS AND BE OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
  73. THURSDAY.

  75. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  76. ==
  77. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 05/1330 UTC.=
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发表于 2026-1-5 16:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-5 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 97.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 97.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 14.2S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 95.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 93.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.0S 92.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 17.3S 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.1S 84.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 96.9E.
05JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12
NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).
//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 050900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR
  4. 002//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.2S 97.1E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 12 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOW
  18. IMPROVING TREND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (JENNA). CONVECTION
  19. PERSISTS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VISIBLE WRAPPING
  20. FEATURES INDICATING SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
  21. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AS SEEN ON ANIMATED
  22. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
  23. REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA
  24. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOWE (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
  25. (VWS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
  26. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF.
  27. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  28. BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
  33. SOUTHEAST

  35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  36.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  37.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  38.    APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  39.    CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 050700Z
  40.    CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 050700Z
  41.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 050700Z
  42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 050648Z
  43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 050700Z

  45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  46.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  47.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

  50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JENNA WILL NOW TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
  61. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
  62. SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL
  63. AFTER TAU 24 WHEN A FORECASTED INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
  64. ALONG WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO DRIER AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING
  65. ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE TC JENNA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING
  66. TREND WILL CONTINUE CULMINATING IN THE DISSIPATION OF TC JENNA AS A
  67. TROPICAL STORM AROUND TAU 96, DRIVEN BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
  68. DRASTICALLY INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

  70. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS UP
  71. TO 80 NM AT TAU 48. THE INCREASED SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 IS CAUSED BY
  72. ONLY A FEW INTERPOLATIONS PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
  73. MAJORITY. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI
  74. MOEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SPREAD AMONGST INTENSITY
  75. GUIDANCE IS ONLY 10 KTS, THOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED A SLIGHT
  76. INCREASE IN MAX WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS, WHICH
  77. INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG TERMS FORECAST. AS
  78. SUCH THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  79. AFTER TAU 72.

  81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  82.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  83.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
  84.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
  85.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  86. NNNN
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pocketbox

33

主题

6707

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1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
13936
发表于 2026-1-5 16:35 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 05 日 18 时
“詹纳”于今日下午生成

时  间: 5日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “詹纳”，JENNA

中心位置: 南纬12.2度，东经97.4度

强度等级: 一级热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 992百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏东方向约60公里

变化过程: “詹纳”于今日下午生成

预报结论: “詹纳”将以每小时22公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月5日14时00分）

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完美风暴

积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-5 18:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 5:48 pm WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain are occurring on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
due to Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Jenna 11U at 3:30 pm CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 97.0 degrees East,
estimated to be 60 kilometres south southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: south southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is just south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and
is forecast to move southwest. Damaging wind gusts have been observed at the
Cocos Island Airport with a 91 km/hr wind gust at 2:30 pm CCT. Damaging wind
gusts may continue until Jenna is well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
later this evening.

Jenna will continue to track away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in open
waters over the next few days.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS up to 100 km/h are occurring over the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands and may continue during this afternoon and evening. Winds
should start to ease late this evening.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue as Jenna passes by, before easing
overnight.

Seas will remain rough this afternoon and evening, with the tide likely to
approach but not exceed the normal high tide mark.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone





Time (CCT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr4 pm January 5112.7S97.0E35
+6hr10 pm January 5113.4S96.4E60
+12hr4 am January 6214.2S95.8E80
+18hr10 am January 6214.9S95.2E90
+24hr4 pm January 6315.5S94.6E100
+36hr4 am January 7316.4S93.2E115
+48hr4 pm January 7216.9S91.6E125
+60hr4 am January 8tropical low17.1S89.9E145
+72hr4 pm January 8tropical low16.8S88.0E180

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