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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-11-18 18:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171321ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.0S 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.7S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.5S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.4S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.6S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.1S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.6S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 131.0E.
18NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171330).//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 180900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE)
- WARNING NR 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 10.0S 130.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS CONSOLIDATED SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE PAST
- SIX HOURS TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF THE FIRST WARNING. ANIMATED
- MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
- BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
- INTO THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR REVEALS A
- PERSISTENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, JUST
- NORTH OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WITH WEAKER BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
- NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. AN 180450Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED
- LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- RELEVANT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POINT
- FAWCETT ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WHICH IS REPORTING
- ONLY 5-10 KNOT EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS. HOWEVER, AN 180018Z ASCAT-C
- IMAGE INDICATES PATCHY 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 20NM OF THE CENTER.
- AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
- KNOTS), WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- THE INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST
- VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
- (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
- TWO DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS
- FORECAST TO PEAK TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH
- GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36. NEAR
- TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO HIGH (25-
- 30 KNOTS) LEVELS, WHICH WILL TILT THE VORTEX SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH DRY
- AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CORE. THIS WILL
- INITIATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND
- STRENGTHEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
- REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM INITIALLY
- SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH
- TAU 120. AFTER TAU 72, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA
- WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COASTAL REGION.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH SIGNIFICANT
- UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHARP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TURNS.
- THE 180000Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS ALSO REFLECT SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY. DUE TO
- THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH RELIABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A
- FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF PEAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS
- IN THE TAU 24 TO TAU 36 PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-18 15:05
