孟加拉湾气旋风暴“蒙萨”(BOB 07/03B.Montha) - 趋向印度东部

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WTIO21 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 87.6E TO 17.4N 79.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5N 87.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTH WESTERN
PERIPHERY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND GFS AND
GEFS SHOW FASTER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270600Z.
//
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WTIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/260552ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATON ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 86.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 86.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 12.3N 85.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 13.3N 84.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 14.4N 83.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 15.4N 82.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 18.5N 82.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 85.9E.
26OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 260600).//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 261500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.3N 86.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 357 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE WEST
    
18. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVER THE
    
19. PAST 6 HOURS THE CIRCULATION HAS GAINED SPEED MOVING AT 09 KTS AND
    
20. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AS EVIDENCED BY THE COOLER
    
21. TEMPERATURES DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    
22. IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST DUE TO
    
23. HIGH (25-30 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ENVIRONMENTAL
    
24. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA
    
25. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C TO 29C), MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND
    
26. STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
27. IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, AS
    
28. WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 260813Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE
    
29. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
30. BASED ON A 260618Z OSCAT AND AGENCY FIXES.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 260618Z OCEANSAT-3 SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 261200Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
54. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT LACKS THE
    
57. INGREDIENTS TO UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE
    
58. CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST BY A SUBTROPICAL
    
59. RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS THE STR BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WITHIN THE NEXT
    
60. FEW HOURS, IT WILL ALLOW TC 03B TO UNDERGO A NORTHWESTWARD TURN FOR
    
61. THE
    
62. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DECREASING STRENGTH OF THE
    
63. RIDGE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW NORTH THE SYSTEM
    
64. WILL PROGRESS UP THE COAST OF INDIA. PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND
    
65. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LET THE CIRCULATION INCREASE UP TO 50
    
66. KTS STRENGTH BY TAU 36. THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
    
67. SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE TC 03B TO
    
68. BEGIN WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. TC 03B WILL BEGIN ITS
    
69. DISSIPATION OVER WATER AROUND TAU 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY
    
70. DISSIPATE OVER LAND
    
71. BY TAU 72.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK
    
74. SPREAD UNDER 70 NM THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS THERE IS A BIT OF
    
75. UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE STEERING
    
76. INFLUENCES REGRESS. NAVGEM KEEPS TC 03B MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF
    
77. NIDAMARRU, INDIA, WHILE GFS HAS A TRACK NORTH OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
    
78. INDIA. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
79. AND GFS WITH CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE RETROGRADING STEERING
    
80. ELEMENTS AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO LANDFALL.
    
81. INTENSITY SPREAD IS AROUND 20 KTS, WITH ONLY HAFS-A DEPICTING
    
82. MAXIMUM INTENSITIES HIGHER THAN 50 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST
    
83. INTENSITY IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
84. CONFIDENCE DUE THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
    
85. 
    
86. 
    
87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
88.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
89.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
90. NNNN

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Ragasa

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 85.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 85.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 12.4N 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.5N 83.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 14.6N 82.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.7N 82.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 18.9N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 85.2E.
26OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 262100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.3N 85.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST BY STRONG 25-30KT EASTERLY
    
20. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS STRONG POLEWARD
    
21. OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH, AND
    
22. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL
    
23. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
24. AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR AND A
    
25. 261557Z METOP-C ASCAT WIND VECTOR IMAGE REVEALING AN ELONGATED
    
26. CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT IMAGE INDICATING AN ASYMMETRIC
    
28. WIND FIELD WITH A MAXIMUM OF 40KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND
    
29. WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 261500Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 261700Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 261700Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
42. UNFAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B WILL ROUND THE
    
58. SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURVING
    
59. NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
    
60. SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24 TO A
    
61. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS
    
62. ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COASTAL STATE OF TELUGU BEFORE
    
63. MOVING INLAND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
    
64. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE.
    
65. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH ABOVE 20 KTS, HOWEVER, THE
    
66. LARGE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE
    
67. NEGATIVE INFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL
    
68. REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03B
    
69. WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KTS BY TAU 24. JUST PRIOR TO
    
70. LANDFALL AT TAU 48, TC 03B WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 40KTS DUE TO
    
71. TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM, AND DISSIPATE INLAND
    
72. BY TAU 72.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
75. AGREEMENT THAT TC 03B WILL TRACK EITHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
    
76. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE
    
77. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT LANDFALL IS 200NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
78. INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS, HOWEVER THAT
    
79. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WITH
    
80. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    
81. 
    
82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
83.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
84.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
85. NNNN

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ygsj24

VistaBSOD

已命名Montha，40kt
建议标题改成：孟加拉湾气旋风暴Montha(BOB 07/03B.Montha) - 趋向印度东部