墨西哥西南热带风暴“索尼娅”(18E.Sonia) - 逐渐西行

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WTPZ43 KNHC 251451
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to be strengthening this morning. While it has been
difficult to pinpoint Sonia's center, it appears to be well
embedded within the central dense overcast. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and various
objective intensity techniques from UW-CIMSS have also increased
with a mean value near 45 kt, so that is initial intensity for this
advisory.

Given the higher initial intensity, the intensity forecast for
Sonia has also increased a little, and now shows the cyclone could
approach hurricane strength tomorrow. Several models now show Sonia
becoming a hurricane late this weekend. The new NHC intensity
forecast is just below the model consensus, so an additional upward
adjustment could be necessary in the next advisory. Beyond 2 days,
Sonia is still expected to gradually weaken as a result of
increasing shear and drier mid-level air wrapping into its
circulation. Models still indicate that Sonia will lose its deep
convection by day 4, and it will likely degenerate into a trough by
the end of the forecast period.

Sonia has continued moving generally west. No substantial changes to
the official track forecast were made aside from a slight northward
tweak to account for the latest initial position of the tropical
storm. In general, the tropical storm should keep on its current
heading today, then slow and turn northwestward on Sunday. By the
middle of next week, Sonia should turn back westward as it weakens
and becomes steered by low-level flow. The spread in the model
guidance is unusually high, so uncertainty in the track is slightly
higher than normal, but the NHC forecast is still based on a blend
of HCCA and GDM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 13.5N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 13.6N 118.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  26/1200Z 13.7N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  27/1200Z 14.4N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  28/0000Z 14.9N 122.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  28/1200Z 15.2N 123.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  29/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252042
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to have become better organized during the past
several hours. GMI microwave imagery valid near 18Z showed a
better-defined center in 37 GHz imagery. Satellite-based intensity
estimates range from near 45 kt to near 55 kt. ASCAT-C wind data
valid at 1701 UTC only captured a part of the circulation of Sonia
on the edge of the pass swath, but it did not show any winds of
tropical-storm force. Based on all these data, the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned GMI data helped identify the center of Sonia, so
the initial position and movement of the tropical storm is higher
confidence now. However, there is still unusually large spread in
the track guidance. The models appear to be split over whether Sonia
will begin a short period of intensification in about a day, or not.
The stronger solutions, including the GFS and all of the hurricane
regional models, show Sonia gaining more latitude, while the weaker
ones, including the Google DeepMind and ECMWF, keep the cyclone
moving generally westward to west-northwestward. The NHC track
forecast already split these solutions, and no significant change
has been made for this advisory since there is no obvious reason to
discount either solution at this time.

Likewise, no change of note was made to the official intensity
forecast. Sonia could strengthen slightly over the weekend, since
its structure and organization appear to be improving and there are
no immediate significant inhibiting factors. However, by early next
week the cyclone will move into a drier environment and move toward
an upper-level low that will result in an increase in shear. This
should cause weakening, and all available dynamical guidance still
indicates Sonia will become post-tropical by day 4, regardless of
how strong it gets between now and then. The NHC intensity forecast
is now near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 13.5N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 13.6N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 13.7N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 14.1N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 15.0N 123.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 15.1N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 26 日 10 时
“索尼娅”向偏西方向移动

时        间:     26日08（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬13.5度，西经119.1度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1425公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“索尼娅”由7级增强到9级

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日08时00分）

“梅利莎”加强为二级飓风

时        间:     26日08时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.5度，西经75.6度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    960百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西偏南方向约420公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由10级增强到15级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia seems to be holding steady this evening.  Data from a
microwave satellite overpass showed the circulation was still open
to the west, with a curved band wrapped around the eastern and
southern portions of the storm.  Convection has waned during the
past few hours and objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates have remained generally stable.  The initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving westward at 4 kt.  There is still a large spread
in the model guidance through the forecast period.  The forecast
reasoning has not changed.  A steadily strengthening system is
expecting to turn west-northwestward to northwestward.  The model
forecasts with shallower vortex structures tend to remain on a more
westward trajectory while the deeper cyclones tend to track more
poleward.  The primary steering features influencing Sonia are a
subtropical ridge extending to the north of the tropical storm and
an amplifying mid-latitude trough that is expected to erode the
ridge in the coming days.  The latest NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous prediction and lies south of the corrected consensus
aid and north of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Sonia has about a day or so to gradually strengthen before
atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to significantly inhibit
intensification.  After that time, vertical wind shear is expected
to increase, with sea surface temperatures decreasing, particularly
if Sonia takes a more northern path. The model guidance envelope
shifted noticeably lower this cycle, though only minimal changes
were made to the official intensity forecast. The latest prediction
lies near the top of the guidance, close to HAFS-A, peaking in about
36 hours, and then calls for Sonia to become a post-tropical cyclone
by day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 13.5N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 13.5N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 13.8N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 14.2N 121.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 14.7N 122.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  28/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  29/0000Z 15.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  30/0000Z 14.8N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260848
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After experiencing a late afternoon diurnal minimum in convection on
Saturday during which the structure of Sonia was rather disorganized
and the intensification of the tropical storm halted, deep
convection has returned over the center overnight, with a large area
of cloud tops colder than -70C.  Light to moderate southerly shear
appears to be affecting the storm just a bit, with the low-level
center situated in the southern half of the convective area.  The
latest subjective intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB.  The objective UW-CIMSS numbers have been
running in the 40-45 kt range, and the highest ASCAT vector on a
recent ASCAT pass was 41 kt.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the above data.

Sonia is experiencing about 10-15 kt of southerly vertical wind
shear while over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 27C.  The
shear and SSTs should remain about the same for the next 12-24 h,
but southerly shear is forecast to increase further after that time
while SSTs begin to gradually decrease.  By 60 hours, shear should
be stronger than 20 kt while SSTs fall below 26C.  Melissa will also
reach a drier airmass after 60 h.  The NHC forecast will show slight
strengthening over the next 24 h while Sonia remains over lukewarm
SSTs and moderate shear.  Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected,
and Melissa should lose its convection and become a remnant low by
day 3.  The intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance
suite through the first 36 hours of the forecast, but shows a
slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous NHC forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products show the cyclone
losing its convection between 60-72 h, so the NHC forecast will call
for Sonia to become a remnant low by hour 72, and gradually
dissipate thereafter.

Sonia has been moving slightly south of due west (265 degrees) at a
slow forward speed of 4 kt.  A weakness in a narrow subtropical
ridge to the north should cause Sonia to turn toward the
west-northwest later today, but still at a very slow forward speed,
because the steering currents overall are weak.  By Tuesday, as the
cyclone weakens, a turn back toward the west with an increase in
forward speed is expected as Sonia is steered primarily by the low-
level flow.  The latest NHC forecast is a tad slower than the
previous prediction and lies generally between the latest HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind Ensemble
Mean (GDMI).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 13.4N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 13.5N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 13.9N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  28/1800Z 14.8N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  29/0600Z 14.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/0600Z 14.5N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 26 日 18 时
“索尼娅”向偏西方向移动

时        间:     26日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬13.4度，西经119.4度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1448公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“索尼娅”由8级增强到9级

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日14时00分）

“梅利莎”加强为三级飓风

时        间:     26日14时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.3度，西经76.1度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    17级，56.6米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    958百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西偏南方向约472公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由11级增强到17级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 261446
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but
over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective
structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is
likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to
southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity
estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using
these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for
this advisory.

Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt.
The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest
towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow
forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken
and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward
the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward
speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and
lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind
solutions.

The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will
remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so.
Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for
some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a
weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and
sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water
vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the
system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2
to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the
system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60
hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model
simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity
forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by
the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 262050
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Visible satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
show that the low-level center was slightly further east than the
previous advisory, on the southeastern side of the convection.
Convection has been waning over the last few hours, with warming
cloud tops. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30
to 44 kt, and the peak satellite derived winds from ASCAT-B were 36
kt. Using this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory. The wind radii have been adjusted and refined with the
scatterometer data.

Sonia is moving slowly west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
295/03 kt. This west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is anticipated over the next day or so. Once the system begins
to weaken, the storm will turn back towards the west steered by the
low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the
previous, between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind
aids.

Sonia continues to deal with moderate southerly wind shear, which
will increase over the next couple of days. The latest sea surface
temperature analysis shows that the system is moving into sub 27C
ocean temperatures, with even cooler SSTs, and a drier more stable
airmass along the forecast track. Given the latest satellite trends
and the less than favorable environmental conditions, intensity aids
show a gradual weakening trend. The GFS and ECMWF model simulated IR
satellite shows that the system will struggle to produce enough
convection to be categorized as a tropical system by 60h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the
consensus aids, becoming a remnant low in 60h and then dissipating
by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 14.1N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  27/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  28/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/1800Z 14.5N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly