小笠原群岛以东2522号热带风暴“夏浪”(28W.Halong) - 数值支持发展，趋向日本以南，未来路径扑朔迷离

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JMA之前已经升格热带低压，云图形态良好，最新风场显示中心闭合

温州蜂蜜

EC很偏西呀，决定报登陆温州！

桑美和伊欧凯

FBI阳光大暖巧 发表于 2025-10-4 11:34
94W如果巅峰C5的话到华东应该最多C2，10月的SST和OHC都不如8月，而且东北季风也开始下来了 ...

9417巅峰C4，登陆浙中就是C2的强度。表层海温高不代表OHC高

Ragasa

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 143.6E TO 23.5N 139.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.4N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 030040Z
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM FROM THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 94W
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050600Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZOCT2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040551ZOCT2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.4N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  A 030040Z ASCAT-C
PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM FROM THE CENTER ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 94W WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON AGREEMENT WITH A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040600)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Enceladus

TPPN10 PGTW 040533
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF IWO TO)
B. 04/0530Z
C. 24.11N
D. 143.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

TIMMERMAN

温州蜂蜜

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-10-4 13:24
9417巅峰C4，登陆浙中就是C2的强度。表层海温高不代表OHC高

难得看到提9417的，我是亲历者，全市海塘全线溃堤，伤亡惨重！

温州犹太人

温州蜂蜜 发表于 2025-10-4 15:45
难得看到提9417的，我是亲历者，全市海塘全线溃堤，伤亡惨重！

9417太惨了
我也是经历者
虽然不在登陆点
可是第二天一片汪洋大海

xzt123456789

不知为何dapiya上提前有12Z数据，还给了TD