阿拉伯海北部强气旋风暴“沙赫提”(ARB 02/02A.Shakhti) - 将西行回旋 - JTWC:75KT

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ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 67.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 67.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 21.7N 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 21.7N 65.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 21.4N 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 21.0N 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.5N 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 21.2N 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 22.9N 71.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 67.0E.
03OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 020600).//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 030300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.5N 67.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 198 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    
18. CONVECTION FLARING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER EVIDENT IN 022110Z AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
20. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 DATA. THE INITIAL
    
21. INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
22. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES, AUTOMATED
    
23. ESTIMATES, AND DERIVED WIND SPEED DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THE 022110Z
    
24. AMSR2 PASS. 02A HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
    
25. PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL
    
26. CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND 012108Z AMSR2
    
29. DERIVED WIND SPEED DATA
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION
    
32. TO THE NORTH.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 030130Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 030130Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 030123Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 030130Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
45.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
56. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
    
59. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED
    
60. INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, A DEEP
    
61. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH WILL DIG EQUATORWARD AND
    
62. ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE, SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
    
63. TO RIDGING SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CHANGE
    
64. IN PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS WILL REVERSE THE STORM MOTION TO
    
65. EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM TOWARD POTENTIAL LANDFALL
    
66. ALONG THE INDIAN WEST COAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE DIGGING
    
67. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM BY
    
68. TAU 48, INTRODUCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALLOWING THE
    
69. SYSTEM TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THESE
    
70. NEGATIVE INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING, WITH DISSIPATION
    
71. BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED PRIOR
    
72. TO LANDFALL.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
    
75. THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO IN TERMS OF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
    
76. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
    
77. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED
    
78. BY A TURN BACK TO THE EAST AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS.
    
79. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF
    
80. WESTWARD MOTION AND THE TIGHTNESS OF THE TURN BACK TO THE EAST. GFS
    
81. AND UKMET-BASED SOLUTIONS LIE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
    
82. WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
    
83. TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A BROADER TURN AND LIKELY
    
84. DISSIPATION OVER WATER BEFORE THE SYSTEM CAN MAKE LANDFALL IN
    
85. INDIA. ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SPAN THE GAP BETWEEN THESE TWO
    
86. GROUPINGS. THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY
    
87. GUIDANCE, ALL OF WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LOW
    
88. VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO INTENSIFY
    
89. STEADILY TO RAPIDLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY IN
    
90. HOSTILE CONDITIONS AFTER TAU 48.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
95.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
96.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
97. NNNN

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ygsj24

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 66.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 66.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 22.0N 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 21.9N 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 21.5N 64.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 21.2N 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.6N 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 21.2N 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.5N 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 66.6E.
03OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 030900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 66.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 180 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. AND SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A. THE INITIAL
    
19. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENT
    
20. CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
21. (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
22. CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONSISTENT AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE
    
23. WELL-ALIGNED OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
24. ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDITION FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
    
25. CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
    
26. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSISTING WITH THE OUTFLOW, AS WELL
    
27. AS LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
    
32. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 030600Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 030500Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 030630Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
54. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH 5 KT
    
57. OR BELOW TRANSLATION SPEEDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
    
58. FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
    
59. STRENGTHENING RIDGING PATTERN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
60. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY,
    
61. REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 55-65 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AROUND
    
62. THAT TAU HOWEVER, A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
    
63. STEERING RIDGE WILL ERODE THE PATTERN AND SHIFT THE PRIMARY STEERING
    
64. INFLUENCE TO ANOTHER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
    
65. THIS WILL NOT ONLY REVERSE THE TRACK MOTION TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD,
    
66. BUT ALSO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND, DRIVEN BY INCREASING VERTICAL
    
67. WIND SHEAR, BUT ALSO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE OF
    
68. THE VORTEX. AS THE SYSTEM THEN TRANSITS TOWARD STATE OF GUJARAT,
    
69. INDIA IT WILL BEGIN ITS DISSIPATION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE
    
70. BY OR BEFORE TAU 120, AND AFTER LANDFALL.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
    
73. AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING
    
74. PATTERN CHANGE. JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
75. CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT-TERM. THE TIMELINE OF THE TRACK U-TURN
    
76. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TRACK PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY, AND THEREFORE
    
77. THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    
78. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS GOOD THROUGHOUT THE
    
79. FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS.
    
80. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING TREND TO
    
81. OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE SHIFT IN STEERING
    
82. PATTERN.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
87.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
89. NNNN

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ygsj24

ygsj24

pocketbox

WTIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 22.0N 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 21.7N 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 21.2N 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.8N 62.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 20.5N 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.2N 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 22.9N 71.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 66.1E.
03OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
171 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 031500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 66.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 171 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT,
    
18. ASYMMETRICAL, BUT SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 02A (SHAKHTI).  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
    
20. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED BY
    
21. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE RANGE OF 28-29 C,
    
22. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL
    
23. WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR,
    
24. BUT IT IS CURRENTLY MANAGING TO PROTECT ITSELF FROM INTRUSION INTO
    
25. THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ESTIMATED WITH MEDIUM
    
26. CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WHICH OBSCURES
    
27. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    
28. ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK
    
29. FIXES AND ALIGNMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 030849Z
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 030900Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 031100Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 030849Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 031130Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND IS
    
62. FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    
63. A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO
    
64. 12 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND
    
65. INTENSIFY, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KTS AROUND TAU 36. HOWEVER,
    
66. A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE
    
67. STEERING PATTERN, CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
    
68. TO ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CHANGE WILL REVERSE
    
69. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INITIATE A
    
70. WEAKENING TREND, RESULTING FROM BOTH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
71. AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. AS
    
72. THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF INDIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
    
73. RAPIDLY WEAKENING, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY OR BEFORE
    
74. TAU 120, FOLLOWING LANDFALL.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE
    
77. AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING
    
78. PATTERN TRANSITION. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
    
79. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE TIMING OF THE TRACK U-TURN
    
80. INCREASES PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY, RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE
    
81. ASSESSMENT FOR THE LONG TERM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOWEVER, SHOWS
    
82. GOOD CONSENSUS WITH MINIMAL VARIABILITY AMONG DETERMINISTIC
    
83. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE A
    
84. WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36, CONSISTENT WITH THE
    
85. EXPECTED SHIFT IN STEERING PATTERN.
    
86. 
    
87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
88.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
89.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
90.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
91.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
92. NNNN

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[code][/code]

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 65.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 65.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 21.9N 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 21.5N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 21.1N 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 20.6N 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.3N 64.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.0N 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 65.6E.
03OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
404 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
031800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 032100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.1N 65.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 404 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
    
18. ASYMMETRIC REGION OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
    
19. SEMICIRCLE. A 031624Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED
    
20. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW
    
21. BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
22. CENTER. A 031716Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH
    
23. 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
24. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE.
    
25. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
    
27. ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE
    
28. FROM 45-50 KNOTS FURTHER BOLSTERING THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY
    
29. ESTIMATE.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A STRONG
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, AND A
    
35. WEAKER STR TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 031714Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 031800Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 031700Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 49 KTS AT 031830Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
50.    OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
63. SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
    
64. PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI
    
65. PENINSULA. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS
    
66. PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE EFFECTIVELY BOXED IN WITH
    
67. RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST (SAUDI PENINSULA), TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
68. (EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL INDIA) AND TO THE SOUTH (BUILDING
    
69. RIDGE). CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC, WITH A SLOW
    
70. TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY
    
71. SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THIS STALL AND TURN, WITH A 150NM
    
72. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
    
73. AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
    
74. ALL LEVELS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
    
75. DRY ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU
    
76. 96. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, IT WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
    
77. NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
    
78. RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
    
81. TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUICKLY WITH INCREASING
    
82. UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
    
83. TIMING OF THE SHARP EASTWARD RECURVE. DESPITE THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING
    
84. STEERING PATTERN, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
    
85. SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
    
86. IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
    
87. THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
91.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
93.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
94. NNNN

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