LOW - 关岛以西90W - 15.0N 137.5E - 数值支持发展，趋向巴士海峡以东 - JMA:LPA

桑美和伊欧凯

未来的大台风胚胎。秋台因为受到冷空气的影响，路径往往和初报大相径庭

恒信金仁

巴士以东c5，珠江口登陆ty是合理的

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161000Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 125.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N
137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACTING DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TROUGHING
AND BROAD TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT AND
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING  
STATUS AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

理可的呆萌呆毛

表理可提醒適當毒奶，盼災不可取（毒奶字眼可以用小號字體或者不明顯的字體顏色喔）

腹黑理可：出現了，出現了，中間忘了，風王，巨刷請。

LilXnow

在預測去年的山陀兒颱風，fourcast net表現的非常好，可以讓他跟FNV3對決一下

LilXnow

LilXnow 发表于 2025-9-16 18:40
在預測去年的山陀兒颱風，fourcast net表現的非常好，可以讓他跟FNV3對決一下

抱歉誤按

渔寮湾

今年西太气旋整体偏弱，看看这个能不能出现第一个C4

温州蜂蜜

这是GFS的那个大饼？

渔寮湾

大饼是画得不小，但巅峰冲破C4目前还有很大不确定性，往年大气环境的变化相对循迹，但今年短期变化特别明显，后期路线是坐巴士还是撞台还很难说

随风飘动

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-9-16 16:54
未来的大台风胚胎。秋台因为受到冷空气的影响，路径往往和初报大相径庭

年年最讨厌的就是台风来时，冷空气又凑热闹