背风群岛以东热带风暴“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展

9916-Bart

稍老的EC12z支持一定程度发展，不过可能得等到40W附近？

ygsj24

544
ABNT20 KNHC 110534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located near
the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands.  The system will likely become
a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves
generally westward.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this
week while the system moves generally northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

EC00z

ygsj24

385
ABNT20 KNHC 111137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is
only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over
the next few days as the system drifts generally northward,
remaining over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
to move northward over cooler waters, ending its changes for further
tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

yhh

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97L)//
WTNT21 KNGU 111400
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 27.5W TO 18.5N 34.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 111200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 27.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS.
2. 138NM W OF PORTO NOVO, CABO VERDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. IF THESE STRUCTURAL TRENDS CONTINUE, THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM, POSSIBLY
AS SOON AS LATER THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 121400Z.//

pocketbox

Special Message from NHC        Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:10:30 +0000  
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Erin, located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 111447
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025

The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde
Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small,
but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an
earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt suggesting the
convection is now sufficently organized to be classified as a
tropical cyclone. We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC
with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection,
with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also
well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge.
The combination of all this data suggests that a tropical storm has
formed, and NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Erin with
a current intensity of 40 kt.

Erin is moving quickly off to the west, with the motion estimated at
275/17 kt. Over the next few days, this motion should continue with
possibly some slight south-of-due-west motion. Erin's motion is
primarily influenced by an east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge
draped across the subtropical Atlantic basin. By the end of the
forecast period, this ridge may start to become more oriented to the
northeast of Erin, inducing a more poleward motion by 120 h. The
initial NHC track forecast elects to stick fairly close to the HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA), which is a touch on the south
side of the overall track guidance envelope. It should be noted that
spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to
increase markedly at the end of the forecast period.

The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. The
earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small
circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either
up or down. While vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to
be low, between 5-10 kt over the next 72 hours, sea-surface
temperatures are more marginal, around 26-27C, with a decent amount
of dry mid-level air along the path of the tropical storm. The first
NHC intensity forecast will thus only forecast slow intensification
in the short-term, assuming the marginal SSTs and lack of mid-level
moisture will keep the small vortex in check. After 48 h, however,
the SSTs start to gradually increase and should allow the local
environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification
will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance
in the short-term, partially due to the initial intensity, but is in
line with the HCCA intensity aid. By 120 h, the hurricane-regional
models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids
(EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will
be explicitly forecast at the end of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 17.4N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 17.5N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 17.4N  35.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 17.1N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 17.1N  41.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  14/0000Z 17.4N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 18.0N  48.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 19.6N  54.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 21.5N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

173
WTNT45 KNHC 112120
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025


Erin's structure this afternoon looks like a tropical cyclone that
is struggling with the nearby thermodynamic environment, with only a
small patch of deep convection pulsing near the estimated center. It
is possible some dry air may have been entrained into the small
circulation earlier today, causing its degraded appearance. For now,
subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed much
from the prior advisory, hovering in the 35-42 kt range, so the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt this advisory.

Erin is still moving quickly off to the west, with the latest
estimated motion at 270/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next 48-72 h as the
system remains steered by a prominent mid-level ridge to its north.
This ridge is forecast to move along with the storm. Towards the end
of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some and shift
northeastward of Erin, which should allow the cyclone to begin
gaining latitude by 120 h. The deterministic track guidance
generally agrees on this track evolution, and was only a little
faster than the prior cycle. The NHC track forecast is quite similar
to the previous one, and lies closest to a blend of the latest 12z
GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GFEX). However, it should be noted that
spread in the ensemble solutions starts to increase substantially by
the end of the forecast period, likely related to the magnitude of
ridging that remains poleward of Erin in five days.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, while vertical wind shear over
Erin is forecast to remain low for the next 3-4 days, the
thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with
sea-surface temperatures between 26-27C, and plenty of stable
stratocumulus clouds along the forecast path of the storm.
Nonetheless, most of the hurricane-regional models show Erin slowly
intensifying during this period. As the storm moves into warmer
sea-surface temperatures after 48 h, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated, as long as the shear remains low and
if Eric is able to mix out some of the dry air in its vicinity. The
intensity guidance is actually a little higher than the previous
cycle beyond 60 h, but the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the prior one, showing Erin becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a
major hurricane in 120 h. This forecast is now a little lower than
HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF at the end of the forecast. There are some
indications there might some northwesterly shear impinging on the
cyclone in 96-120 h, so I elected to stay under these aids for this
cycle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 17.4N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 17.4N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 17.3N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 17.1N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 17.3N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  14/0600Z 17.8N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 18.5N  50.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  15/1800Z 20.0N  55.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

---

000
WTNT45 KNHC 112248 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

Corrected spelling of storm name in third paragraph

Erin's structure this afternoon looks like a tropical cyclone that
is struggling with the nearby thermodynamic environment, with only a
small patch of deep convection pulsing near the estimated center. It
is possible some dry air may have been entrained into the small
circulation earlier today, causing its degraded appearance. For now,
subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed much
from the prior advisory, hovering in the 35-42 kt range, so the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt this advisory.

Erin is still moving quickly off to the west, with the latest
estimated motion at 270/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next 48-72 h as the
system remains steered by a prominent mid-level ridge to its north.
This ridge is forecast to move along with the storm. Towards the end
of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some and shift
northeastward of Erin, which should allow the cyclone to begin
gaining latitude by 120 h. The deterministic track guidance
generally agrees on this track evolution, and was only a little
faster than the prior cycle. The NHC track forecast is quite similar
to the previous one, and lies closest to a blend of the latest 12z
GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GFEX). However, it should be noted that
spread in the ensemble solutions starts to increase substantially by
the end of the forecast period, likely related to the magnitude of
ridging that remains poleward of Erin in five days.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, while vertical wind shear over
Erin is forecast to remain low for the next 3-4 days, the
thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with
sea-surface temperatures between 26-27C, and plenty of stable
stratocumulus clouds along the forecast path of the storm.
Nonetheless, most of the hurricane-regional models show Erin slowly
intensifying during this period. As the storm moves into warmer
sea-surface temperatures after 48 h, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated, as long as the shear remains low and
if Erin is able to mix out some of the dry air in its vicinity. The
intensity guidance is actually a little higher than the previous
cycle beyond 60 h, but the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the prior one, showing Erin becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a
major hurricane in 120 h. This forecast is now a little lower than
HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF at the end of the forecast. There are some
indications there might some northwesterly shear impinging on the
cyclone in 96-120 h, so I elected to stay under these aids for this
cycle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 17.4N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 17.4N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 17.3N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 17.1N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 17.3N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  14/0600Z 17.8N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 18.5N  50.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  15/1800Z 20.0N  55.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

9916-Bart

EC 12z最强支持917mb

Ck.

主要还是前面水温不够，相对来说发展比较缓慢