墨西哥西南一级飓风“弗洛茜”(06E.Flossie) - 沿岸西北行 - NHC:70KT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析TOO WEAK

TXPZ28 KNES 251323
TCSENP
CCA
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  25/1200Z
C.  9.0N
D.  92.2W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON REANALYSIS
OF IMAGERY. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SECOND CIRCULATION SW OF
THE PREVIOUS CENTER POSITION. SPIRAL LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER RESULT IN A DT OF LESS THAN
1.0. PT IS ALSO LESS THAN 1.0. MET IS 1.0. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form by late this weekend
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Blake

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have
changed little in organization during the past day or so.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by late this weekend while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast
of Guatemala have diminished over the past day or so.  However, the
low is forecast to encounter more favorable upper-level winds in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala remain limited and disorganized.  Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off
the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala is beginning to show some signs of organization.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
late this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描