百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

ygsj24

609
WTNT35 KNHC 180534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 69.9 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is
expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern
Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the
United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight,
Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Erin is increasing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance
dropsonde data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico
today. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally
higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos
and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through
Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

hei

ygsj24 发表于 2025-8-18 13:40
609
WTNT35 KNHC 180534
TCPAT5

00z 可以考慮降到105kt, 雖然現在有增強的

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘 涛  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 08 月 18 日 18 时
“埃林”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:   18日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经69.9度，北纬22.5度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级，59米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    945百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋海地太子港东北方向约510公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”略减弱后又略有增强

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度先加强再逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月18日14时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 180836
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin is growing in size, as predicted. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed that
the hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 70 n
mi and 200 n mi from the eye, respectively. The eye of the hurricane
has also grown and is now about 30 n mi in diameter, and there is
some evidence of mesovorticies within it. There is also some
indication that Erin again has concentric eyewalls as the Hurricane
Hunters reported a double wind maximum in their last pass. The
initial intensity remains 115 kt based on a combination of the
earlier aircraft data and current satellite estimates. Erin's outer
rainbands are affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and those locations will likely continue to
experience tropical storm conditions for several more hours.

The hurricane has wobbled to the left over the past 6 hours, but a
longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 11 kt. Erin is
still forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday
as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. This
motion should take the core of the hurricane roughly midway between
Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.
After that time, an approaching trough should cause Erin to
accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one to be
closer to the various consensus models.

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and
it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification
is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a
broadening of the inner core wind field. Slow weakening seems likely
beginning Tuesday, but it should be emphasized that Erin is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the models in the short term, but falls near the
middle of the guidance after that.

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the
past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th
percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the
next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and
portions of the southeast and central Bahamas. Flash and urban
flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 22.8N  70.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  18/1800Z 23.6N  71.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  19/0600Z 25.0N  72.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  19/1800Z 26.6N  72.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  20/0600Z 28.6N  73.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  20/1800Z 30.7N  73.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  21/0600Z 32.9N  72.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  22/0600Z 37.2N  66.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 41.6N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

恒信金仁

ygsj24 发表于 2025-8-18 16:37
000
WTNT45 KNHC 180836
TCDAT5

48H前的最西点还是70.9W，如果西崩持续 老美东海岸就寄了

菜园子

1

菜园子

1

觀雲趣

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/mission/ERIN_NOAA2_WB05A/

Mission Summary
Updated at 11:21z
Location: 21.92°N, 70.33°W
Type: Unknown

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 118kt at 10:42z
Peak SFMR: N/A
Peak WL150/500 Wind (Reduced): 133kt (106.4kt) at 10:42z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 934.5mb at 11:03z
Minimum Estimated Dropsonde Pressure: 935.5mb at 10:47z

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A gradual turn to the
north is expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the
southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is expected
today.  Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane through the
middle of this week.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the southeast
and central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

恒信金仁

这货可能真能作为西太猛货假如实测的参考，现在状态不像在70W而是130E