|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2025-8-12 10:51
|
显示全部楼层
JTWC/16W/#21/08-12 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (PODUL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.9N 128.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 336 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 16W
(PODUL) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOPS MEASURING AS COLD AS -78 C. THE TRACK MOTION
OF 16W HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO AN ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION. AN 112313Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED AN
ELONGATED, BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AT THE LOW-LEVELS. THE
PREVIOUS RAGGED EYE HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED. THE IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION
SEEMS TO CORRELATE TO A MOISTENED VORTEX CORE. EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED AND IS NOW ANALYZED TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KTS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS
FAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SHORT EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MENTIONED GMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LISTED AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 120000Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 53 KTS AT 112313Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 120000Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST
AFTER TAU 24, ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN, NEAR TAITUNG.
AFTERWARD, A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 42,
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
STORM MOTION AS 16W APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE TO AN INDUCED VORTICITY
PHENOMENON CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE
(CMR). REGARDING INTENSITY, 16W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK OF AROUND 80-85 KTS DUE TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
MODEL FIELDS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE VORTEX MOISTENING, WHICH WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO ENSUE,
WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
THE SECOND LANDFALL EVENT, 16W WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER LAND
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36, AND A 140 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AIDS CONTINUING TO TRIGGER THIS CYCLE. THERE IS A 35 KNOT SPREAD AT
TAU 24 WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 65-100 KTS. GFS IS THE
WEAKEST MODEL WHILE CTR1 (COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI AID) IS THE
STRONGEST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ABOUT 5 KTS HIGHER
THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
评分
-
查看全部评分
|
楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-12 11:18
