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JTWC/26W/#17/09-27 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.8N 112.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 220 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON (TY) 26W
(BUALOI). RAPID DEVELOPMENT REMAINS HINDERED BY SLIGHT PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR IMPACTING THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, UTILIZING FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-
29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ESTIMATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 271052Z GPM GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OSCILLATING AROUND T4.5.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 271300Z
CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 271300Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 56 KTS AT 271048Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 271200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE
THROUGHOUT LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 95 KTS AROUND TAU 24.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
TY 26W WILL OVERCOME THE DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH. SHORTLY
AFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND BEGIN WEAKENING
FROM AN IMPRESSIVE 65 KTS AROUND TAU 36. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION, COMBINED WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. JGSM, WHICH REMAINS AN OUTLIER, PREDICTS A
TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO HAINAN. HOWEVER, OVERALL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
HAS IMPROVED SINCE LAST FORECAST, WITH 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
LANDFALL. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH RESPECT TO
INTENSITY, ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE
IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MULTIPLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, PROJECTING PEAK WINDS
TO REACH 100-115 KTS. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH
INTENSITY VALUES PARALLEL TO HAFS-A GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-9-27 23:20
