百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘 涛  签发：王 皘  2025 年 08 月 17 日 18 时
“埃林”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   17日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经66.1度，北纬20.4度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    17级，57米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    940百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋海地太子港东北方向约730公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”由15级增强到17级以上后又略减弱

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时20-25公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度略有变化。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月17日14时00分）

恒信金仁

几乎退回昨天此时的强度 105节

菜园子

FNV3 ens mean 00z

9916-Bart

M32

hei

見識一下ERIN增肥大法

ygsj24

161
WTNT35 KNHC 171150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 67.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.7 North,
longitude 67.0 West.  Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h).  This motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday
and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
over the next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

升压也并非很快

菜园子

改过来了，现在是05L了，同时用了一种取巧的方式自动调整日期标签的位置，可以极大程度防止标签线条交叉问题（应该

9916-Bart

根据实测，气压开始维持或降低

9916-Bart

9916-Bart 发表于 2025-8-17 22:31
根据实测，气压开始维持或降低

刚说完就疑似升。。。