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JTWC/16W/#19/08-11 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PODUL) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 130.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 371 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
16W, INDICATING STRENGTHENING CONVECTION. THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS
PERSISTING DESPITE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE INABILITY TO LOCATE THE
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED EIR AND A LACK OF
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
FIXES LISTED BELOW. HOWEVER, THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS ON AN INTENSIFYING
TREND.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 111017Z
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 111140Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 30+ KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE STORM MAY EXHIBIT IRREGULAR MOTION JUST BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. THIS IS DUE TO THE
KNOWN TRACK DEFLECTION CAUSED BY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE (CMR),
WHICH CAN INDUCE VORTICITY AND LEAD TO UNUSUAL LOOPING OR CURVING
BEHAVIOR IN APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONES. AFTER PASSING OVER
TAIWAN AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE STORM WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL
ON MAINLAND CHINA. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WHILE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE
FAVORABLE, PERSISTENT 25-30KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN
ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL RESTRICT THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75KTS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
STREAMLINED, AND THE STORM WILL INTERACT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE ENHANCED FLOW, INITIATING A WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING
WILL ACCELERATE AFTER LANDFALL ON TAIWAN AS THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE
IS DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE CMR. TS 16W WILL
RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEFORE ITS SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL ON
MAINLAND CHINA. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN WILL ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF TS 16W BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TS 16W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
IS 118NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK. THE TRACK SOLUTIONS LYING SOUTH OF THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOP MORE THAN THE SOLUTIONS LYING
NORTH DUE TO LESS INTERACTION WITH ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER
SHEAR, AND DRIER AIR. THE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LESS CONFIDENT THAN THE NEAR-TERM DUE TO THE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-11 17:42
