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发表于 2025-8-25 21:16
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JTWC/19W/#13/08-25 12Z Final Warning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-8-25 21:35 编辑
WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 105.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 105.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.7N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3N 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 105.2E.
25AUG25. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION ALONG THE COAST,
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER TRACKED INLAND BETWEEN VINH (48845) AND HA TINH
(48846) AFTER 250800Z. AT 251200Z, VINH'S WINDS SWITCHED TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WHILE HA TINH SWITCHED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED
BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH FRAGMENTED SPIRAL
BANDING. A 251111Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION AND SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. OVERALL,
THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TY 19W WILL TRACK INLAND AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LAOS, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 26 FEET.//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-25 17:28
