百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

莎莎

北大西洋05L號颶風  Erin (厄琳)  已經達到了Cat.5的強度

他超越了中太平洋的Iona  可說是2025北半球目前的風王









有實測  給出了Cat.5  917hPa  140kts

Enceladus

半天没看怎么突然强炸惹

菜园子

猛

shikouzen

眼温转负

ygsj24

619
WTNT35 KNHC 161731
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 5 ERIN PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erin is moving toward
the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this afternoon. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico through Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible
this afternoon.  Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the
rest of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing
areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward and Virgin
Islands.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend.  These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week.  These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

219
WTNT45 KNHC 162043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on
the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter. At that time, the maximum winds were near 140 kt
and the central pressure was near 915 mb. Both Air Force and NOAA
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last
couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery
is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle
may be starting. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt pending the
upcoming arrival of a NOAA Hurricane Hunter.

The eye has started to gain latitude during the past few hours and
the initial motion is now 280/13 kt - a little slower than before.
The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next
6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should
then continue through 24-36 h. After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is still expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north.
However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just
when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the
12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted to the left during the entire forecast track,
and the new forecast track is also shifted to the west. The new
track is still to the east of the consensus models during the
northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary
in later forecasts.

Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours due
to possible eyewall replacement cycles. However, Erin should remain
a strong hurricane during this time.  Between 24-72 h, increasing
northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening, although there
are likely to be fluctuations superimposed on this.  After 72 h, the
storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where
the shear will increase further. The new intensity forecast will
show an increased weakening rate, but will keep Erin as a major
hurricane as it will still be over warm sea surface temperatures
during that time.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos
Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in
effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through
Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4.  Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 20.0N  64.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  17/0600Z 20.4N  65.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 21.4N  67.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 22.7N  69.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 24.0N  70.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
60H  19/0600Z 25.5N  70.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 27.3N  71.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 31.7N  70.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 36.8N  65.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

觀雲趣

AMSR 89H

9916-Bart

实测中心气压回升，一巅应该趋于尾声

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 162348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.6 West. Erin is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn towards the west-northwest is
expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
towards the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Sunday night and Monday.

Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.  Erin is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days
due to inner-core structural changes.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by hurricane hunter
dropsonde data is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area
in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with
wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend.  These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States by early next week.  These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

觀雲趣

GMI 89H