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发表于 2025-8-11 10:59
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JTWC/16W/#17/08-11 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (PODUL) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 133.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 442 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 16W (PODUL) WITH AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER,
CHARACTERIZED BY ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS. DRY AIR REMAINS
EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, REVEALING FRAGMENTED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRAL VORTEX.
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 35-40 KTS CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SYSTEM, CREATING A SHARP EDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN FACE OF
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ALOFT, MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW SUPPORTS THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE INTENSITIES OF 50-55
KTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS MARGINAL,
WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 29-30 C, UNFAVORABLE VWS, AND A RELATIVELY DRY SURROUNDING
ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 110008Z METOP-B IMAGE
AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 45-55 KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 110110Z
CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 110110Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 102205Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 110030Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 35-40 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN TRANSITION TO A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. TS
16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE AN INITIAL LANDFALL NEAR TAU 54 OVER TAIWAN
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 66, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER WATER INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MAKE ITS FINAL APPROACH TOWARD LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FUJIAN
PROVINCE, CHINA, BETWEEN TAU 66 AND TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS
PODUL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
VWS DECREASES TO BELOW 30 KTS. THE CENTRAL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
TO 30-31 C, ALLOWING TS 16W TO UTILIZE AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. UPON INITIAL LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AT TAU 54, SURFACE
INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL
INTERACTION, CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 60 TO TAU 66. AS THE SYSTEM
RE-EMERGES OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 26 C ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA, BETWEEN TAU 66 AND TAU 72. A
SHARP WEAKENING PHASE IS ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING THIS SECOND
LANDFALL, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK SOLUTIONS
EXHIBIT FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A 191 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE
INITIAL LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AT TAU 54. BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 66,
THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 254 NM- THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION REMAINS THE ONLY OUTLIER, POSITIONED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH
OF THE CONSENSUS CLUSTER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE 96 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEAR TAU 36.
ONE OUTLIER PERSISTS (COAMPS-TC), SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL INTENSITY
OF 85 KTS AT THE SAME TIME, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEM (EPS) INTENSITY CHARACTERIZES A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PROBABILITY OF 65 PERCENT BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
INTENSITY CONSENSUS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-11 06:13
