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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-3 15:00 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 030621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 54.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
36H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 10 NW: 20
48H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY RESUMED IN AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN. THE CONFIGURATION APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR MODE. DEEP WESTERN SHEAR IS NOW DISCERNIBLE
GIVEN THE LESSER EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE WSFM SWATH AT 0222UTC IN 89GHZ NOW SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN THOUGH A
LOW-LEVEL RING PERSISTS IN 37GHZ. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REGARDING THE
PT GIVES US AN FT OF 3.5. THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE
DIAGNOSTICS (ADT/AIDT/DPRINT). WE THEREFORE CHOOSE TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SPEEDS WITHIN FYTIA AT 45KT AT 06UTC, CORRESPONDING TO A
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE PARTIAL SWATH OF AN
ASCAT-B AT 0455UTC CONFIRMS THIS CHOICE.
FYTIA'S TRAJECTORY REMAINS SOUTH-EASTWARD, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IN THE NEXT 24H, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF MOTION SPEEDS. FYTIA COULD BE DRAWN MORE OR
LESS RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EASTERN RIDGE AND THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN VERY DIVIDED, WITH
DIFFERENCES OF NEARLY 250KM IN 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND SOME AI MODELS. GIVEN SUCH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MAIN MODELS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE STILL WARM WATERS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
POLAR OUTFLOW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY WORSEN WITH
INCREASED DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON
A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW
MORNING, FYTIA SHOULD THEN EVOLVE A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITHOUT
SUSTAINED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE REMAINS OF FYTIA MAY
THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A DEPRESSION CORRIDOR AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. |
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-2-3 10:05
发表于 2026-2-3 10:48
