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JTWC/27W/#10/10-03 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 119.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 197 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-
DEFINED MESOSCALE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W
(MATMO). THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY RE-EMERGED OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AFTER IT TRANSITED OVER NORTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. TERRAIN-INDUCED
MODULATION RESULTED IS SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, BUT
THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF TIGHT WRAPPING AND
CONSOLIDATION. SPIRALING FEEDER BANDS BEGIN TO BUILD A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) STRUCTURE. AS THE VORTEX ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, AND A DEEPLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERIC
COLUMN ARE SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSIGNED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A FUSION OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
PRESENT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY LOOP. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
EVALUATED AT 60 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CORROBORATED BY OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 031130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 031130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 61 KTS AT 030813Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 49 KTS AT 031200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 27W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH. INTERACTION WITH THE OROGRAPHIC COMPLEXITY OF LUZON HAS
INTRODUCED SOME FRICTIONAL DISRUPTION TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER INFLOW,
BUT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DERIVE ENERGY FROM FEEDER BANDS REMAINING
POSITIONED OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WATERS, MITIGATING
SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION. WHILE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH THE
CHINESE COAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KTS AROUND TAU 36. THE
PRIMARY LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND OVER THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA JUST BEFORE TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
LANDFALL IN PROXIMITY TO THE CHINA-VIETNAM BORDER BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
72. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RAPID
STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION AND WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
RESULTING IN DISSIPATION PRIOR TO THE TERMINUS OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTION GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING PATTERN AND OVERALL
TRACK EVOLUTION. THE TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS REMAINS
LIMITED TO APPROXIMATELY 45 NM PRIOR TO FINAL LANDFALL. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM, ATTRIBUTABLE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN RE-INTENSIFICATION TIMING AND CHARACTER OVER OPEN WATERS.
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS - INCLUDING ELEVATED SST, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND MINIMAL VWS - WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE PREDICTED TRACK. A MINOR AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION REMAINS ELEVATED, WITH SOME
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS (DTOP, RIDE) BEING TRIGGERED. PEAK
INTENSITY IS FORECAST AROUND TAU 36. ALL DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY
MODELS PROJECT MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS BELOW 85 KTS AND INDICATE SHARP
POST-LANDFALL WEAKENING, SUPPORTING LATER STAGES OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-3 22:20
