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JTWC/19W/#09/08-24 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 109.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 128 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 19W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, FROM 55 KNOTS AT 231200Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT CORE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN
ISLAND, LARGELY UNSCATHED WITH A 15NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 241124Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T5.0 TO
T5.5 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND NOW RANGE FROM 86 TO 98 KNOTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 241054Z
CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 241200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 241200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 97 KTS AT 241124Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 92 KTS AT 241200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 18.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU
12 THEN WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
OF NORTHERN LAOS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, WITH A 35NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE 240600Z
GEFS AND 240000Z ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE (INCLUDING COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND HAFS-A) INDICATES
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95-105 KNOTS AT TAU 12, SUPPORTED BY TRIGGERED
RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE COAST OF VIETNAM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-24 17:54
