留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-2 14:34
JTWC 06Z分析维持T3.0/3.5

JTWC稍早前重新分析，修改了定位

TPXS10 PGTW 020704
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/0531Z
C. 21.28S
D. 52.50E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
REANALYSIS ON POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   02/0207Z  20.93S  52.02E  SARI
   02/0241Z  20.78S  51.87E  MMWI
   02/0303Z  20.85S  51.92E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 020902
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/0830Z
C. 21.75S
D. 52.67E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   02/0512Z  21.23S  52.17E  MMHS
   LINDGREN

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WTIO30 FMEE 021211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

36H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED WITH COOLING
PEAKS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, LEAVING A CURVED BAND PATTERN WHOSE
T ANALYSIS MAY BE 3.0+ DUE TO THE IMPROVING TREND. THE LATEST GCOM-W
MICROWAVE AT 1023UTC SHOWS AN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
TREND, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE WINDS ABOVE 50KT. FYTIA
THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF ALTITUDE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE
MOVEMENT COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
PROGRESSIVE ERASING OF THE DIRECTING FLOW IN LOW LAYERS WITHIN A
BAROMETRIC NECK BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONIC CELLS. BY
WEDNESDAY OR EVEN THURSDAY, A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT COULD MORE OR
LESS RESUME UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, A SCENARIO CURRENTLY
BEING CONSIDERED BY THE RSMC. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRAJECTORY REMAINS QUITE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK
AND THE SYSTEM COULD REMAIN VIRTUALLY STATIONARY TOWARDS ITS END OF
LIFE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FYTIA IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM
RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM WATERS, GOOD DIVERGENCE, AND
STILL MODERATE SHEAR. THIS LEAVES A SHORT WINDOW UNTIL THIS EVENING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING
DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHOUT SUSTAINED
CONVECTION AND WITHOUT ANY MORE GALES, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FYTIA'S REMNANTS SHOULD
THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A LOW-PRESSURE CORRIDOR AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.


EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 021130
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/1130Z
C. 21.94S
D. 53.07E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

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WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 53.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 53.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 23.0S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.7S 54.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 24.2S 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 24.9S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 26.8S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 53.4E.
02FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 021500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 53.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) AS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FLARING
    
19. CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
    
20. WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OUTSIDE OF THE PRIMARY
    
21. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, PRESENT DRY AIR HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE
    
22. LAST 12 HOURS, LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
    
23. MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE ENVIRONMENT
    
24. HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH
    
25. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27-28 C AND ROBUST POLEWARD
    
26. OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
    
27. AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADD PRESSURE TO THE CYCLONES WESTERN AND
    
28. NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH
    
29. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
    
30. 021031Z 89 GHZ ATMS MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
    
31. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
32. RANGING FROM 32-45 KTS AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
    
33. STEADY AT 45 KTS.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITION PHASE BETWEEN A
    
38. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
    
39. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 021033Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 020900Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 021100Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 020943Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 021130Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
53.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
    
67. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE
    
68. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE
    
69. EAST-SOUTHEAST. DURING THE SYSTEMS RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK
    
70. SOUTHEASTWARD, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
    
71. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A JET FINGER FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
    
72. TROUGH LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 36 AND CONTINUE
    
73. SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS
    
74. INCREASING TO UNFAVORABLE VALUES (GREATER THAN 30 KTS) AT TAU 36,
    
75. DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ALSO BEGIN ERODING THE CENTRAL VORTEX
    
76. WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS. TC INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AFTER
    
77. TAU 36 AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW IN VERTICAL
    
78. EXTENT. SURFACE INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO WEAKEN FROM 40 KTS TO
    
79. 35 KTS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, LARGELY DUE TO SEA SURFACE
    
80. TEMPERATURES DECREASING TO BELOW 26 C, UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
    
81. SHEAR, AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, TC 19S IS
    
82. FORECASTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 48 WITH SURFACE
    
83. INTENSITIES AT 40 KTS AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72
    
84. NEAR 35 KTS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN
    
85. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
    
86. 
    
87. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
88. INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD
    
89. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
    
90. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM BY TAU 36. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE
    
91. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 87 NM,
    
92. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. DURING
    
93. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES
    
94. A SHALLOW VORTEX WITH A WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM THE BULK OF JTWC
    
95. CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED WITH
    
96. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST AND ALIGNED
    
97. CLOSELY WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND AI SOLUTIONS. REGARDING
    
98. INTENSITY, THE MAJORITY OF JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS
    
99. CHARACTERIZE STEADY INTENSITIES THROUGH TAU 12, WITH A WEAKENING
    
100. TREND THEREAFTER. HAFS-A CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE INTENSIFICATION
     
101. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, INCREASING DRY AIR AND VERTICAL
     
102. WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN
     
103. ADDITION, COAMPS-TC EPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES STEADY
     
104. INTENSITIES TO MODERATE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
     
105. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
     
106. CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
     
107. CONSENSUS.
     
108. 
     
109. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
110.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
112. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 021516
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/1430Z
C. 22.50S
D. 53.52E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 021827
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/1730Z
C. 22.91S
D. 53.54E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   02/1508Z  22.62S  53.33E  MMWI
   RUCKER

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 021917
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 53.4 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED STRONG IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH PARTICULARLY COLD TOPS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. RADAR DATA FROM REUNION ISLAND SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS
REFORMED WITHIN THE SYSTEM. DATA FROM THE 1503Z SAR PASS AND THE
1509Z WSFM PASS SEEM TO SHOW THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS MOVED BACK
UNDER THIS EYE, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. FYTIA'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 55KT.

FYTIA'S TRAJECTORY REMAINS SOUTH-EASTWARD, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN THE LOWER LAYERS WITHIN A
BAROMETRIC COL, BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH OPPOSING SCENARIOS.
FYTIA COULD EITHER CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR BE CAPTURED BY
THE TRADE WINDS, OR BE DRAWN SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE ON A SCENARIO. DETERMINISTIC IFS IS
NOT CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE IA ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAIN DIVIDED.
THE SPEED OF WEAKENING COULD PLAY A ROLE. GIVEN SUCH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SCENARIOS.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FYTIA IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM
RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM WATERS, GOOD DIVERGENCE, AND
STILL LIMITED SHEAR. HOWEVER, IN THE COMING HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN WITH INCREASED DEEP SHEAR AND DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITHOUT SUSTAINED CONVECTION OR
STRONG WINDS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE REMAINS OF FYTIA MAY THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN
WITHIN A DEPRESSION CORRIDOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 022051
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/2030Z
C. 23.07S
D. 53.81E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   02/1508Z  22.62S  53.33E  MMWI
   RUCKER

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 030101
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110

48H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110

60H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE EYE VISIBLE ON RADAR DATA FROM LA
REUNION HAS COLLAPSED, PROBABLY DUE TO THE EFFECT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS DEVELOPMENT, FYTIA'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50KT.

FYTIA'S TRAJECTORY REMAINS SOUTH-EASTWARD, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IN THE NEXT 24H, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE EFFECT
OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN THE LOWER LAYERS WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL,
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WITH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF MOTION SPEEDS. FYTIA
COULD BE DRAWN MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
EASTERN RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN VERY
DIVIDED, WITH DIFFERENCES OF NEARLY 350KM IN 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND SOME AI MODELS. GIVEN SUCH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE STILLE WARM WATERS AND GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY WORSEN WITH
INCREASED DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON
A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE WEDNESDAY, FYTIA SHOULD
THEN EVOLVE A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITHOUT SUSTAINED CONVECTION OR
STRONG WINDS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE REMAINS OF FYTIA MAY THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN
WITHIN A DEPRESSION CORRIDOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.