马达加斯加东南副热带风暴第14号“朱卢卡”(Juluka)

qiqi

WTIO30 FMEE 271242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20252026
1.A SUBTROPICAL STORM 14 (JULUKA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/28 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 535 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2026/04/28 12 UTC: 43.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 455 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 565 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

A LOW-PRESSURE AREA FORMED ON SUNDAY EVENING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AND, IN PARTICULAR, MORE PERSISTENT SINCE SUNDAY
NIGHT NEAR A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE ASCAT PASS AT 0445Z MEASURED WINDS OF 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER.
FURTHERMORE, THE FORMATION OF A WARM CORE IN A NEARLY BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUSTIFIES CLASSIFYING THIS SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THAT IS WHY IT
WAS NAMED JULUKA AT 11 UTC.

HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DETERIORATED
AND DECOUPLED FROM THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, INDICATING STRONG DEEP
SHEAR AND A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

ITS TRACK IS GUIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DRIVES IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RETURN
TO HIGHER LATITUDES AND MERGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THE DEEP SHEAR, WHICH WAS WEAK
UNDER THE TROUGH, IS BECOMING STRONGER AND DISRUPTING CONVECTION AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. INTENSITY COULD FALL BELOW 35 KT
TONIGHT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN TRACK AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).

红豆棒冰冰

有趣，MFR此前的报文显示10Z仍为TS，不知道是笔误还是两小时后就转化为了SS

AWIO20 FMEE 271155
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 27/04/2026 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil, but system JULUKA will be monitored by RSMC La Réunion at 12 UTC.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin exhibits a poorly defined near-equatorial trough (NET) configuration around 5°S and between 55°E and 75°E.
Convective activity is generally weak to moderate north of the NET and east of the Chagos Islands in the area where the
trade wind flow slows down. Outside the TPE, convective activity is also moderate to strong near Subtropical Storm
JULUKA, which is moving south of Madagascar near 34°S and 48°E.
A westward wind anomaly is expected to gradually set in along the equator over the next few days as the MJO moves
into our basin. Conditions should thus become more favorable for cyclogenesis, with the TPE becoming better defined.
An interaction between Kelvin and Rossby waves could also intensify vorticity and convection within this TPE, creating
conditions more conducive to cyclogenesis by the end of the week.
Tropical Storm JULUKA :
Information at 10 UTC :
Estimated position: 34.4S / 47.9
Movement : SSE, 07 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes): 35 kt
Estimated central pressure: 1000 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12 UTC.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
10-day outlook:
As the MJO moves across the Indian Ocean, the pattern is expected to continue improving in early May, with increasing
convergence within the NET. Consequently, models suggest a low risk of cyclogenesis over the central basin during the
week of May 4th but this risk is currently negligible.

Js_Mitari

首报即终报……

台风银杏

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-27 20:31
有趣，MFR此前的报文显示10Z仍为TS，不知道是笔误还是两小时后就转化为了SS
...

感觉像笔误之类的，之前热带性质没纯到哪里去。

桑美和伊欧凯

台风银杏 发表于 2026-4-28 03:58
感觉像笔误之类的，之前热带性质没纯到哪里去。

大概率是笔误，路径图上显示也不是从TD发展起来的，一直是副热