ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.9S 152.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOWER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO
THE SOUTH WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AS DEPICTED IN A 012327Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS STRONG FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE,
WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST FURTHER
INTO AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Low 31U
Tropical low 31U a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday.
Tropical low 31U has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday through to Friday if it remains over the Gulf of Carpentaria waters.
This weekend TC ratings will reduce slightly as 31U is likely to move towards the west over land through the Northern Territory and the Kimberley.
By next Monday 31U may be over waters near the Kimberley coast and the tropical cyclone risk increases to Low (10%).
发表于 2026-3-2 09:28
