帕劳西北热带低压02W - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

大水台6

实时云图

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编扰资讯

wp942026 INVEST 20260202 0000 6.5 140.3 W DB 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

终于编扰了，JMA 00Z已经认定LPA，不过定位与JTWC相比有些差距

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 143E WNW SLOWLY.
https://www.tyboard.top/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=3187&pid=223974

桑美和伊欧凯

数值反复强调的2月系统终于有了雏形

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

Enceladus

数值反应暧昧，暂且认为成台机会不大

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z预报3天内成台，随后西行登陆菲律宾，巅峰约990百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h维持LPA，+48h升格TD

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及FNV3 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 141E WNW SLOWLY.

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 021030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021030Z-030600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N
140.2E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED AND BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTERMITTENT FLARING CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
CHARACTERIZE THE LLCC AS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY BROAD SURFACE
CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MODELS ILLUSTRATE SURFACE INTENSITIES BETWEEN 20-25 KTS IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. GENERALLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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