ABPW10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060200Z-060600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.8S
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE FLARING VERTICAL HOT TOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND INDICATES
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND A SLP OF 1006MB. A 052325Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALED AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING EXTENDING FROM HEAR BOUGANVILLE
REEF TO SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. THE LLCC IS PLACED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN END OF THIS TROF. WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE PRESENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE THE TROF, WITH 15-20 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
Tropical Low 12U
Moderate risk of a tropical cyclone from Thursday night off the northeast Queensland coast.
A broad monsoon low (12U) is slowly starting to form to the northeast of Willis Island. It will take some time for this low to become an established circulation.
Tropical Low 12U is likely to be slow moving at first, before moving west or southwest towards the northeast Queensland coast late in the week.
The low should gradually develop, and the risk of a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate (25-40%) from Thursday night.
From Sunday, the risk of a tropical cyclone decreases back to Low as 12U is more likely to have moved over land. During next week 12U may move over Gulf of Carpentaria waters where it has a Low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
There is potential for increased risk of rain, flooding, wind and marine hazards for residents in northeast Queensland. Rain and flooding risks could continue after 12U has moved over land. Residents in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
If 12U moves towards western Queensland or the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, it is likely that the second tropical low (13U) will have already weakened.
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070258Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTER. A 062305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF SHARP
TROUGHING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD. IN
CONTRAST, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
92P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SLIGHT HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROADER WIND FIELD. IN CONTRAST,
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
92P IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Headline:
Increasing chance of a tropical cyclone developing off the northeast Queensland coast over the next few days.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Low 12U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 95 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 150.0 degrees East , 500 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 580 kilometres northeast of Townsville .
Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low (12U) is developing in the Coral Sea, north of Willis Island. The system is expected to move slowly northwest initially, before turning southwest and moving towards the northeast Queensland coast during Friday.
There is an increased chance that tropical low 12U may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday night or Saturday as it approaches the coast.
Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast tropical Queensland coast. If the risk of a tropical cyclone increases further, then gales with wind gusts to 120 km/h may develop during Saturday initially about exposed coastal parts between Port Douglas and Proserpine, including Cairns and Townsville.
Recommended Action:
Residents along the northeast Queensland coast should monitor forecasts, warnings, and updates from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Details:
Time (AEST)
Intensity Category
Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr
4 pm January 8
tropical low
15.0S
150.0E
95
+6hr
10 pm January 8
tropical low
14.7S
149.3E
115
+12hr
4 am January 9
tropical low
14.5S
148.8E
135
+18hr
10 am January 9
tropical low
14.5S
148.5E
145
+24hr
4 pm January 9
tropical low
14.8S
148.3E
155
+36hr
4 am January 10
tropical low
15.8S
147.9E
160
+48hr
4 pm January 10
tropical low
17.2S
147.4E
160
+60hr
4 am January 11
tropical low
18.3S
146.8E
190
+72hr
4 pm January 11
tropical low
19.0S
146.3E
220
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Thursday
Headline:
Moderate risk of a tropical cyclone developing off the northeast Queensland coast later Friday or early Saturday.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Low 12U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 95 kilometres of 14.5 degrees South, 148.5 degrees East , 400 kilometres northeast of Cairns and 560 kilometres north northeast of Townsville .
Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low (12U) is developing in the Coral Sea, northwest of Willis Island. The system is expected to move slowly westwards initially, before turning southwest and moving towards the northeast Queensland coast during Friday.
There is a moderate risk that tropical low 12U may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday night or Saturday as it approaches the coast.
Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast tropical Queensland coast. If the risk of a tropical cyclone increases further, then gales with wind gusts to 120 km/h may develop during Saturday initially about exposed coastal parts between Port Douglas and Proserpine, including Cairns and Townsville.
Recommended Action:
Residents along the northeast Queensland coast should monitor forecasts, warnings, and updates from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Details:
Time (AEST)
Intensity Category
Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr
10 pm January 8
tropical low
14.5S
148.5E
95
+6hr
4 am January 9
tropical low
14.4S
148.0E
115
+12hr
10 am January 9
tropical low
14.4S
147.4E
130
+18hr
4 pm January 9
tropical low
14.7S
147.2E
135
+24hr
10 pm January 9
tropical low
14.9S
146.9E
135
+36hr
10 am January 10
tropical low
16.3S
146.5E
125
+48hr
10 pm January 10
tropical low
17.6S
145.8E
165
+60hr
10 am January 11
tropical low
18.5S
144.9E
190
+72hr
10 pm January 11
tropical low
18.8S
144.5E
200
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Friday
Headline:
Moderate risk of a tropical cyclone developing off the northeast Queensland coast later Friday or early Saturday.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Low 12U at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 95 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South, 148.0 degrees East , 370 kilometres northeast of Cairns and 560 kilometres north northeast of Townsville .
Movement: west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour .
A tropical low (12U) is developing in the Coral Sea, northwest of Willis Island. The low has been moving slowly west, but is expected to turn towards the south southwest today, taking it towards the northeast Queensland coast during Friday.
There is a moderate risk that tropical low 12U may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday night or Saturday as it approaches the coast.
Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast tropical Queensland coast. If the risk of a tropical cyclone increases further, then gales with wind gusts to 120 km/h may develop during Friday and Saturday initially about exposed coastal parts between Port Douglas and Proserpine, including Cairns and Townsville.
Recommended Action:
Residents along the northeast Queensland coast should monitor forecasts, warnings, and updates from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Details:
Time (AEST)
Intensity Category
Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr
4 am January 9
tropical low
14.4S
148.0E
95
+6hr
10 am January 9
tropical low
14.4S
147.7E
115
+12hr
4 pm January 9
tropical low
14.8S
147.6E
135
+18hr
10 pm January 9
tropical low
15.2S
147.6E
145
+24hr
4 am January 10
tropical low
16.0S
147.4E
150
+36hr
4 pm January 10
tropical low
17.6S
146.9E
150
+48hr
4 am January 11
tropical low
18.8S
146.3E
165
+60hr
4 pm January 11
tropical low
19.4S
145.8E
155
+72hr
4 am January 12
tropical low
19.5S
145.4E
165
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Friday
WTPS21 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 147.9E TO 17.8S 146.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 32 TO 37 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY ELLIPTICAL AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE
INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN RECENT
HOURS. A 082223Z METOP-B ASCAT REVEALS EXPANSIVE BELTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS
WINDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN
RECENT HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, THE CIRCULATION
IS NOT YET COMPACT OR WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND DECENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWS STEADY CONSOLIDATION
AND CONTRACTION OF THE BROAD WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRANSITS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100030Z.//
NNNN
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 10:51 am EST on Friday 9 January 2026
Headline:
Tropical Low 12U is developing off the northeast Queensland coast, with impacts expected on Saturday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Douglas to Tully, including Cairns and Innisfail
Watch Zone
Tully to Airlie Beach, including Townsville and Bowen
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low 12U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 14.3 degrees South 148.4 degrees East, estimated to be 405 kilometres northeast of Cairns and 580 kilometres north northeast of Townsville.
Movement: slow moving.
A tropical low (12U) is developing in the Coral Sea, northwest of Willis Island. It is expected to turn towards the south southwest later today, taking it towards the North Tropical Coast overnight. It is likely to cross the coast between Cairns and Ayr late Saturday or early Sunday.
Tropical Low 12U is now forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity prior to reaching the coast. However, the heavy rainfall and damaging wind impacts are likely to be similar whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone.
Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop over exposed coastal areas and elevated terrain between Cairns and Tully on Saturday morning, and may extend north to include Cairns and Port Douglas if the system tracks further west than forecast.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h may extend further south to coastal areas between Tully and Airlie Beach later on Saturday.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas north of Townsville overnight Friday into Saturday. HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast to extend south to Airlie Beach on Saturday. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is possible between Tully and Airlie Beach on Saturday.
Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Port Douglas and Airlie Beach, but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.
A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast tropical Queensland coast. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current.
Recommended Action:
- People between Port Douglas and Tully, including Cairns and Innisfail, should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm.
- People between Tully and Airlie Beach, including Townsville and Bowen, should stay informed.
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au
- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Friday 09 January.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
发表于 2026-1-6 02:30
