圣诞岛东南一级热带气旋“伊格吉”(10U/11S.Iggy)

大水台6

sh902026 INVEST 20251229 0600 -8.0 101.5 S DB 15 0

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Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low (10U) forming near Indonesia, may pass near Christmas Island on Thursday.

• A tropical low (10U) is forecast to develop tonight in the monsoon trough near Indonesia, north of the Australian Region.
• The low is expected to move to the southeast and may enter the Australian Region late Wednesday or on Thursday.
• Tropical Low 10U may pass near Christmas Island on Thursday, bringing strong winds and increased rainfall.
• From Friday the movement of Tropical Low 10U becomes more uncertain, but it will remain well north of the WA coast.
• Tropical Low 10U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone between Wednesday night and Sunday.
• Residents of Christmas Island should monitor forecast updates over the coming days.
  

Last updated
36 minutes ago, 08:53 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 31  Dec 12:00 am

Wed 31  Dec 12:00 pm

Thu 1  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 1  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 2  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 2  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 3  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 3  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 5  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

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Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low (10U) forming southwest of Sumatra, to bring increase in showers and winds at Christmas Island on Thursday.

• A tropical low (10U) is forming in the monsoon trough southwest of Sumatra, north of the Australian Region.
• The low will move to the southeast crossing 10S into the Australian Region near Christmas Island late Wednesday or early Thursday.
• Christmas Island can expect increased rainfall and possibly strong winds late Wednesday and during Thursday.
• The environment is then favourable for development and 10U now has a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone over open waters from Friday to Sunday.
• By Saturday the system should slow and most likely take a westward track over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• Residents of Christmas Island should monitor forecast updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:45 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Thu 1  Jan 11:00 am

Thu 1  Jan 11:00 pm

Fri 2  Jan 11:00 am

Fri 2  Jan 11:00 pm

Sat 3  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 3  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 4  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 4  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 5  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 5  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 6  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 6  Jan 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

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ABIO10 PGTW 310030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/310030ZDEC2025-311800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301952ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 75.6E, APPROXIMATELY 491 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8S 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 302100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S
102.7E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301506Z ASCAT REVEALED AN AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
FOR  THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

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Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low (10U) forming southwest of Java, to bring increase in showers and winds at Christmas Island Wednesday night and Thursday.

• A tropical low (10U) is forming in the monsoon trough southwest of Sumatra, north of the Australian Region.
• The low will move to the southeast crossing 10S into the Australian Region near Christmas Island late Wednesday or early Thursday.
• Christmas Island can expect increased rainfall and possibly strong winds Wednesday night and during Thursday.
• The environment is then generally favourable for development and 10U has a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone over open waters from Friday to Sunday, before starting to weaken early next week.
• By Saturday the system should slow and most likely take a westward track over open waters of the Indian Ocean, remaining well offshore of Western Australia.
• Residents of Christmas Island should monitor forecast updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:10 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 2  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 2  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 3  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 3  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 5  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 6  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 7  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 7  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

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WTXS21 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 104.8E TO 14.2S 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011330Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W.
NNNN

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311321ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 106.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 106.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 12.6S 108.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 13.8S 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 14.6S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 15.1S 110.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 15.9S 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 16.7S 106.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 106.7E.
31DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555
NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z, AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 311330).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 312100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.2S 106.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 555 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 11S WITH IMPROVED PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS NOW
    
19. CONFINED TO A SMALL POCKET OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC). CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
    
21. 11S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
    
22. MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
23. SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
    
24. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
    
25. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF T2.0 AND AN EARLY CIMSS DPRINT
    
27. ESTIMATE OF 33 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 311444Z METOP-C ASCAT
    
28. PASS SHOWED 30-35 KTS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
    
33. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE WEST.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 312000Z
    
38. 
    
39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
40.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
41.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
42.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
43. 
    
44. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
45.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
46.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
47.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
48. 
    
49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
50. 
    
51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
52. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
53. 
    
54. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
    
55. ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NER TO THE WEST
    
56. THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, THE STEERING MECHANISM WILL SWITCH TO A
    
57. LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING 11S TO
    
58. TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD. A WESTWARD TRACK IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
    
59. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF
    
60. INTENSITY, 11S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 AS
    
61. SHEAR REMAINS LOW. NEAR TAU 36, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
    
62. QUICKLY INCREASE TO OVER 20 KTS, CAUSING 11S TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
    
63. THE WESTWARD TURN. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SHEAR, DRY AIR
    
64. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE
    
65. VORTEX, FURTHER AIDING IN THE WEAKENING TREND. 11S IS FORECAST TO
    
66. WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS AROUND TAU 96.
    
67. 
    
68. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
69. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
    
70. TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER EASTWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF
    
71. GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
    
72. AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL START TO DIVERGE DUE TO DIFFERING
    
73. INTERACTIONS WITH THE STEERING MECHANISM SWITCH. GFS AND THE GFS
    
74. ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE TWO FASTEST MODELS DURING THROUGHOUT THE
    
75. WESTWARD TURN. ON THE OTHER HAND, ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST TO TURN THE
    
76. SYSTEM. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96 INCREASES TO OVER 400 NM WITH
    
77. THE GFS BEING FAR AND AWAY THE FASTEST MODEL. THE JTWC TRACK
    
78. FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN
    
79. CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
80. GENERALLY AGREES ON MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND
    
81. WEAKENING AFTERWARD. COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED) HAS A MUCH SHARPER
    
82. WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 36, DROPPING THE INTENSITY TO JUST 15 KTS
    
83. AT TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
84. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
85. 
    
86. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
87.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
89.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0129 UTC 01/01/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 107.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (141 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/0600: 12.4S 108.2E:     040 (075):  030  (055): 1003
+12:  01/1200: 12.9S 109.0E:     045 (085):  035  (065): 1001
+18:  01/1800: 13.5S 109.6E:     055 (100):  035  (065): 1001
+24:  02/0000: 14.0S 110.1E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  998
+36:  02/1200: 14.5S 110.8E:     075 (135):  045  (085):  994
+48:  03/0000: 14.7S 110.8E:     080 (150):  045  (085):  993
+60:  03/1200: 15.0S 110.3E:     095 (180):  040  (075):  997
+72:  04/0000: 15.6S 109.2E:     120 (220):  035  (065): 1000
+96:  05/0000: 15.8S 106.2E:     165 (305):  030  (055): 1003
+120: 06/0000: 15.5S 103.7E:     260 (485):  025  (045): 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Low (10U), located to the southeast of Christmas Island and
developing.

Tropical Low (10U) has overnight become established, with curvature to the west
and southwest, shown on AMSR2 microwave imagery at 1836 UTC. Deep cold
convection is developing near the centre, and the first visible satellite
images of the morning show low cloud lines to the northeast, with the low level
centre just under the deep convection.

Dvorak analysis: initial T1.0 classification occurred at 12 UTC 31 Dec, and
have seen gradual improvement in curvature since. A curved band with wrap of
0.4 gives a DT of 2.5. FT/CI limited to 2.0 by constraints. Intensity analysed
at 30kn consistent with the overnight scatterometry and objective aids.
Overnight scatterometry HY-Scat at 1630 UTC and the edge of ASCAT 1440 UTC
indicating 30 kn. Objective guidance (1-min mean) at 2300 UTC is ADT 35kn, AiDT
32kn and DPRINT 32kn.

There is some displacement in the convection to the south southwest of the
centre, consistent with some north northeasterly winds over the system and the
CIMSS upper wind analysis depicting low to moderate deep layer wind shear.

The environment in the short term is favourable for further development. Sea
surface temperatures are 30 degrees C. An upper trough to the south is
enhancing poleward outflow and is likely to continue to aid development for the
rest of today and during Friday. Development is forecast until Saturday
morning, when the upper trough slides to the east and 10U moves south into a
region with higher shear and increasing dry air. As well as the less favourable
upper support, 10U is likely to be located south of about 15S, with decreasing
sea surface temperatures and weakening is expected to commence.

10U is currently being steered to the southeast by the upper trough to the
south. Once this trough moves to the east during Saturday, a upper anticyclone
than becomes the dominant steering influence and takes 10U to the west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:46 am WST on Thursday 1 January 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.1S 107.7E,

Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with
wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour, was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.1S
107.7E, that is 285 km southeast of Christmas Island and 1290 km north
northwest of Exmouth and moving southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low (10U) is developing well to the southeast of Christmas Island and
is likely to move to the southeast and develop to a tropical cyclone during
Friday.

10U is likely to continue to develop until Saturday morning. Later during
Saturday 10U is likely to slow and turn to the west, away from the WA mainland,
and begin weakening.

10U is likely to weaken as is moves west over open waters during Sunday.

There are no impacts expected to the WA mainland or any island communities.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 01
January.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am January 1	tropical low	12.1S	107.7E	45
+6hr	2 pm January 1	tropical low	12.4S	108.2E	75
+12hr	8 pm January 1	tropical low	12.9S	109.0E	85
+18hr	2 am January 2	1	13.5S	109.6E	100
+24hr	8 am January 2	1	14.0S	110.1E	110
+36hr	8 pm January 2	1	14.5S	110.8E	135
+48hr	8 am January 3	1	14.7S	110.8E	150
+60hr	8 pm January 3	1	15.0S	110.3E	180
+72hr	8 am January 4	tropical low	15.6S	109.2E	220

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 107.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 107.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 13.8S 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.7S 110.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 15.3S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 15.7S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 16.4S 108.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 108.2E.
01JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 010300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 107.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 695 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 11S WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME
    
20. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
    
21. LLCC. A 312310Z F16 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE
    
22. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED
    
23. CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
    
24. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
25. BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF T2.0 AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
26. ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 32-35 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    
27. THAT 11S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
    
28. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
    
29. (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
    
34. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE WEST.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 312300Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 312300Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 312300Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
    
58. ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NER TO THE WEST
    
59. THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, THE STEERING MECHANISM WILL SWITCH TO
    
60. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING 11S
    
61. TO TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD. A WESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE NORTHERN
    
62. PERIPHERY OF THE STR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
    
63. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 11S IS
    
64. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 AS SHEAR REMAINS LOW. NEAR TAU
    
65. 36, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KTS,
    
66. CAUSING 11S TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES THE WESTWARD TURN. IN ADDITION TO
    
67. THE INCREASING SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
    
68. BEGIN IMPACTING THE VORTEX, FURTHER AIDING IN THE WEAKENING TREND. 11S
    
69. IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS AROUND TAU 72 AS IT TRAVELS FURTHER
    
70. WESTWARD.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
73. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
    
74. OUTLIERS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL AFTER MAKING THE
    
75. WESTWARD TURN AND NAVGEM IS THE SLOWEST. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
76. 72 IS AROUND 95 NM WHILE ALONG TRACK SPREAD IS 190 NM. THE JTWC
    
77. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
    
78. TAU 48 AND THEN CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN
    
79. THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION
    
80. THROUGH TAU 24-36 BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
81. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
82. PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
87. NNNN

复制代码

yhh

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0440 UTC 01/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0300 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 107.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (148 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/0900: 12.9S 108.5E:     030 (060):  045  (085):  995
+12:  01/1500: 13.5S 109.2E:     040 (080):  050  (095):  992
+18:  01/2100: 14.0S 109.8E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  992
+24:  02/0300: 14.4S 110.3E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  988
+36:  02/1500: 14.8S 110.8E:     070 (135):  060  (110):  983
+48:  03/0300: 15.0S 110.7E:     085 (155):  060  (110):  983
+60:  03/1500: 15.4S 110.0E:     095 (180):  050  (095):  991
+72:  04/0300: 15.9S 108.8E:     115 (215):  035  (065): 1000
+96:  05/0300: 16.0S 105.8E:     170 (315):  030  (055): 1003
+120: 06/0300: 15.6S 103.2E:     245 (455):  025  (045): 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U), located to the southeast of Christmas Island has
developed faster than forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) has developed gales in all quadrants, shown in
ASCAT at 0107 UTC. The centre of Iggy is under the deep convection and has
continued to develop through the day.

Dvorak analysis: initial T1.0 classification occurred at 12 UTC 31 Dec, and
have seen improvement in curvature since. At 03UTC a curved band with wrap of
0.5 gives a DT of 2.5. FT/CI limited to 2.0 by constraints. At 03UTC intensity
analysed at 40kn consistent with the ASCAT at 0107 UTC. Objective guidance
(1-min mean) at 0340 UTC is ADT 43kn and AiDT 31kn.

There is some small displacement with the deepest convection to the south
southwest of the centre, consistent with some north northeasterly winds over
the system and the CIMSS upper wind analysis depicting low to moderate deep
layer wind shear.

The environment in the short term is favourable for further development. Sea
surface temperatures are 30 degrees C. An upper trough to the south is
enhancing poleward outflow and is likely to continue to aid development for the
rest of today and during Friday. Development is forecast until Saturday
morning, when the upper trough slides to the east and 10U moves south into a
region with higher shear and increasing dry air. As well as the less favourable
upper support, 10U is likely to be located south of about 15S, with decreasing
sea surface temperatures and weakening is expected to commence.

10U is currently being steered to the southeast by the upper trough to the
south. Once this trough moves to the east during Saturday, a upper anticyclone
than becomes the dominant steering influence and takes 10U to the west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:22 pm WST on Thursday 1 January 2026

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (Category 1), was located at 11:00 am AWST near 12.5S
107.9E, that is 330 km southeast of Christmas Island and 1240 km north
northwest of Exmouth and moving south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) has formed over open waters well to the northwest
of the WA mainland and well to the southeast of Christmas Island.

Iggy may continue to develop until Saturday morning as it moves towards the
southeast. Later during Saturday Iggy is then expected to slow and turn to the
west, away from the WA mainland, and begin weakening.

Iggy is likely to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday as is
moves west over open waters.

There are no impacts expected from Iggy to the WA mainland or any island
communities.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 01
January.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am January 1	1	12.5S	107.9E	35
+6hr	5 pm January 1	1	12.9S	108.5E	60
+12hr	11 pm January 1	2	13.5S	109.2E	80
+18hr	5 am January 2	2	14.0S	109.8E	90
+24hr	11 am January 2	2	14.4S	110.3E	100
+36hr	11 pm January 2	2	14.8S	110.8E	135
+48hr	11 am January 3	2	15.0S	110.7E	155
+60hr	11 pm January 3	2	15.4S	110.0E	180
+72hr	11 am January 4	1	15.9S	108.8E	215