Tropical Low 03U
Tropical low (03U) is slowly forming south of Indonesia, risk of a tropical cyclone increases to moderate from Thursday.
A tropical low (03U) is forming south of Indonesia and is expected to move slowly over the next few days.
Conditions are only slightly favourable and development of the low is expected to be slow, with ratings increasing to Low (5-15%) from Monday and then Moderate (25%) from Thursday.
In the longer term 03U is expected to move slowly west or southwest, most likely remaining well offshore from the WA coast.
ABIO10 PGTW 122230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/122230Z-131800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S
113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 523 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121808Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 93S STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY STARTS TO DEVELOP AND CONDENSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2025-12-11 08:19
