ABIO10 PGTW 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/241000Z-241800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.7N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 71.0EE, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION MOVING WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE
ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N
89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED
WITHIN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO
THE ANDAMAN ISLAND. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NEAR THE LLCC
BUT IS BEING SHEARED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH MODERATE
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OF 5-15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, THOUGH ECENS DEPICTS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
UNLIKE GEFS OR THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH SHOW A MUCH SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND AN OVERALL WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 55.6E, APPROXIMATELY 661 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 85.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LINEAR, CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S, WITH PRIMARILY NAVGEM SHOWING A BROAD
CIRCULATION, THEN FALLING OFF AFTER TAU 48. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL SURGE
FLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
AND GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2)//
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ABIO10 PGTW 251900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/251900Z-261800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1N 71.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
LESS OF A SIGNAL OF DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
DEPICTS EVENTUAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.7N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
BETTER DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE ANDAMAN ISLAND
CHAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 25OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 706 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 250900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5S 76.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2025-10-24 02:10
