墨西哥西南热带风暴“普丽西拉”(16E.Priscilla)

大水台6

EP, 99, 2025100218,   , BEST,   0, 124N, 1020W,  20, 1009, DB

---

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Ragasa

TCFA


WTPN21 PHNC 021930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 101.8W TO 13.7N 104.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 102.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 1468 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 99E WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-30 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ON A
SIMILAR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031930Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico are
showing signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next day or so as the system moves generally
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Further development
is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form later today
or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move very slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the south coast of
Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward to
northwestward near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021921ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 104.5W TO 15.9N 107.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 104.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.3N 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 104.7W, APPROXIMATELY 496NM
SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING A
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SOCORRO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 021930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041930Z.//
NNNN

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico
continue to become better organized this evening. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data depict a circulation that remains
somewhat broad, but if current trends persist, advisories on a
tropical depression could be initiated on Saturday. The system is
forecast to move very slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast
of Mexico by the middle of next week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward, near or parallel to the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Gibbs

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to
become better organized, and it appears that a tropical depression
may be forming. If current trends persist, advisories on a tropical
depression will be initiated later today or tonight. The system is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast
of Mexico by the middle of next week. Gradual development of this
system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward, near or parallel to the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

ygsj24

827
WTPZ41 KNHC 042033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

The satellite presentation of Invest 99E has continued to improve
today, with an elongated convective band having formed through
the western and northern part of the circulation.  Given the
system’s broad nature, its center definition had been questionable,
particularly based on ASCAT data from yesterday evening.  However, a
recent 1645 UTC ASCAT pass showed that the center has become
significantly better defined, with 35-40 kt winds occurring north
and northwest of the center.  Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Priscilla, with an estimated
intensity of 40 kt.

Priscilla is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at 8 kt.  A
large-scale trough is currently located over the western United
States and extends southward over Baja California, leaving
Priscilla in an environment of weak steering currents.   In the
short term, that should cause the storm to slow down and drift in a
general northward direction for the next 36 hours.  After that
time, Priscilla is expected to settle in to a more steady
northwestward track as a stronger mid-level ridge builds over
northern Mexico and the deep-layer trough remains entrenched over
the western United States.  For most of the forecast period, the
NHC track forecast leans on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope, in the vicinity of the ECMWF, HCCA consensus aid, and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Priscilla will be moving over sea surface temperatures of about 29
degrees Celsius during the next couple of days, coincident with a
period of strong upper-level divergence.  These conditions should
support strengthening, although the system's large size could limit
the rate of intensification in the short term.  That said, some of
the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are greater than 50% within
36 and 48 hours, so if Priscilla can develop a tighter inner core
within the larger wind field, more significant strengthening would
be possible.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to
become a hurricane by Sunday night, with strengthening continuing
through Tuesday.  Cooler water temperatures and a less favorable
atmosphere should induce weakening by Wednesday and Thursday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico within the watch area Sunday and
Monday.  Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur
should also monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Monday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

3.  Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach the coasts of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 15.8N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 16.3N 106.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 17.0N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 17.8N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  07/0600Z 18.8N 109.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 19.7N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 21.7N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 24.1N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 05 日 10 时
东北太平洋热带风暴“普丽西拉”于今晨生成

时        间:   5日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “普丽西拉”，PRISCILLA

中心位置:    北纬15.5度，东经106.6度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1002百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥格雷罗州锡瓦塔内霍西南方向约590公里

变化过程:    “普丽西拉”于今晨生成

预报结论:   “普丽西拉”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度缓慢增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月5日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 042344
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
500 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

...LARGE PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow, generally
northward drift is expected through Sunday, followed by a faster
northwestward motion beginning on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Priscilla is expected to move offshore of and parallel
to the coast of southwestern Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Priscilla is
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Priscilla is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico on Sunday and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart