23W(TD 14)机构发报专帖

Lupiter

WTPN21 PGTW 160330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 124.8E TO 19.4N 120.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING
CONVECTION. A 152219Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS BROAD,
FRAGMENTED BANDING. A RECENT 160106Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH
OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GRADIENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT
INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON,
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170330Z.//
NNNN

Lupiter

备用预留

yhh

熱帶性低氣壓TD20

現況
2025年09月16日14時
中心位置在北緯 15.0 度，東經 124.2 度
過去移動方向 北
過去移動時速 15公里
中心氣壓 1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 14 公里
預測 09月16日20時
中心位置在北緯 15.5 度，東經 123.6 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 15 公里
預測 09月17日02時
中心位置在北緯 16.1 度，東經 123.0 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 80 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 09月17日08時
中心位置在北緯 16.8 度，東經 122.7 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 105 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 16 公里
預測 09月17日14時
中心位置在北緯 17.6 度，東經 122.3 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 09月18日02時
中心位置在北緯 18.9 度，東經 121.4 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 15 公里
預測 09月18日14時
中心位置在北緯 19.9 度，東經 120.0 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 180 公里

預測 48 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 11 公里
預測 09月19日14時
中心位置在北緯 21.5 度，東經 118.2 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 350 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 9 公里
預測 09月20日14時
中心位置在北緯 22.0 度，東經 116.2 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 380 公里

預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 9 公里
預測 09月21日14時
中心位置在北緯 21.8 度，東經 114.2 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 620 公里

yhh

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年09月16日16時25分発表

16日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯15度20分 (15.3度)
東経123度40分 (123.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

17日03時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯17度00分 (17.0度)
東経123度00分 (123.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
予報円の半径        100 km (55 NM)

17日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯18度30分 (18.5度)
東経122度40分 (122.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

18日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯20度25分 (20.4度)
東経119度10分 (119.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

19日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯21度55分 (21.9度)
東経116度30分 (116.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

20日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯21度40分 (21.7度)
東経115度30分 (115.5度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        992 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        330 km (180 NM)

21日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯21度30分 (21.5度)
東経114度30分 (114.5度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        440 km (240 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.3N 123.7E
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 123.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
   
7.   CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
   
8.   CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   
9.   DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS
   
10.   HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    
11.   INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    
12.   ANALYSES.
    
13. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
14.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    
15.   SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
    
16.   MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
    
17.   MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    
18.   CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
19. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
20.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
21.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    
22.   EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
    
23.   UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
    
24.   REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
    
25.   BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    
26. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
27.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
28.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
29.   GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
    
30.   SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
    
31.   FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
32. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.37 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Tue, 16 Sep 2025, 16:50

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Tue, 16 Sep 2025, 06:00 Analysis	-	TD	15	54	1006	15.2	123.8	NW	10			-
Wed, 17 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1000	18.5	122.5	NNW	16	180 [SW 80]		90
Thu, 18 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	19	68	998	20.1	119.3	WNW	16	190 [SW 90]		130
Fri, 19 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	20	72	996	21.7	116.3	WNW	15	200 [SW 100]		190
Sat, 20 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	21	76	994	21.7	115.2	W	5	210 [SW 110]		280
Sun, 21 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	19	68	998	21.5	114.3	WSW	4	200 [SW 100]		410

yhh

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 160600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 14 INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC
00HR 15.3N 123.7E 1005HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.6N 122.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 18.1N 121.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+36HR 19.8N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 20.8N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 21.4N 118.7E 982HPA 28M/S
P+72HR 21.9N 117.9E 980HPA 30M/S
P+96HR 22.2N 116.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 22.1N 114.6E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160321ZSEP25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 123.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 123.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 16.6N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.0N 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 19.1N 120.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.0N 119.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.5N 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 22.1N 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 22.3N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 123.3E. 16SEP25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
(TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 160330).//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.5N 123.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 155 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. A 160729Z F-18 SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND SLIGHT VERTICAL TILT SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO 5-10KTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
EARLIER 160106Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALING A
PARTIAL BUT TIGHT WIND FIELD WITH 20-25KTS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE STEERED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION IS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 12-36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LUZON. THE
LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
PERIOD. TD 23W WILL TRACK BACK OUT OVER WATER BY TAU 36, ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION TO RESUME IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT TAU 48
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, AND DRIVE TD 23W TO A
WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. TD 23W IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60KTS AT TAU 72. BETWEEN TAU 96-120, TD 23W IS
ANTICIPATED TO TRACK CLOSELY TO HONG KONG. WEAKENING WILL HAVE
BEGUN BY TAU 96 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UPWELLING IN THE
SHALLOW COASTAL REGION. TD 23W WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TD 23W WILL CURVE NORTHWESTWARD, AND THEN WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WILL INFLUENCE INTENSIFICATION,
AND AS A RESULT THE INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS A LARGER SPREAD.
OVER LUZON, GFS TRACKS LONGER OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGE THAN ECMWF,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A LARGER HINDRANCE TO INTENSIFICATION. LATER
IN THE FORECAST, GFS AND HWRF REACHES A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY AND NEVER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ALTERNATIVELY, HAFS-A AND ECMWF MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
HONG KONG AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST AND
AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MEAN, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
CONSENSUS MEAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 160900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 14 INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC
00HR 15.5N 123.5E 1005HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 14KM/H
P+12HR 16.7N 122.7E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 18.2N 122.0E 995HPA 20M/S
P+36HR 19.9N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 20.9N 119.3E 985HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 21.6N 118.5E 982HPA 28M/S
P+72HR 22.0N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+96HR 22.1N 115.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 22.0N 113.9E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN

yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：曹迈  签发：张玲  2025 年 09 月 16 日 18 时
中央气象台9月16日18时发布热带低压预报：

菲律宾以东洋面的热带扰动已于今天（16日）下午加强为热带低压，下午5点钟其中心位于菲律宾马尼拉东偏北方向约290公里的洋面上，就是北纬15.5度、东经123.5度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计，热带低压将以每小时15公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强，将于16日夜间到17日加强为今年第17号台风，17日白天登陆或擦过菲律宾吕宋岛东北部，17日夜间到18日上午穿过巴士海峡移入南海东北部海面，以后趋向我国台湾到广东一带沿海。

大风预报：16日20时至17日20时，巴士海峡、南海北部和南部、台湾海峡、台湾沿海、福建沿海将有6-7级大风，巴士海峡的部分海域风力可达8级，阵风9-10级。