TCFA - 背风群岛以东92L - 13.4N 41.5W - 数值支持发展 - NHC:90%

qiqi

AL, 92, 2025091512,   , BEST,   0, 119N,  383W,  25, 1010, DB,

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1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for
development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151743
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the
Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.  This system has
become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move
through a favorable environment for further development.  A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the
middle to latter part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between
the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.  This system
is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a
favorable environment for further development.  A tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to show signs of
organization with a broad area of low pressure located about midway
between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or
two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of
west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Beven

yhh

WTNT21 KNGU 161600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (92L)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 41.5W TO 17.2N 46.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 41.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WEST AFRICA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SHOW INCREASED SIGNS OF
ORGINIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM, AS SOON AS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IS TRACKS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 171600Z.//