ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM
EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE,
INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
173.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030047Z OCEANSAT
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CALMER WINDS (5-10 KTS) CLOSER TO THE CENTER, WHILE
MORE ELEVATED WINDS (10-15 KTS) ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF 91P, MULTIPLE
MESOVORTICIES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ASSISTING THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 032047 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.8S
171.5E AT 031800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS/EIR
IMAGERY. TD11F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. TD11F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE LOWER CONVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH CAN HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 717 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ELONGATED
BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A RECENT OSCAT-3 PASS REVEALED A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department,
Port Vila at 6:00pm VUT Saturday 4 April 2026.
At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Low (TL) (1000 hPa) was located at 13.0S 171.1E. The Tropical Low
is positioned at the bottom left corner of square letter L, number 3 (L, 3) of the Vanuatu tropical
cyclone tracking map. That is about 420 KM east northeast of the Banks group. The system is slow
moving in the southerly direction at 23 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is low to moderate.
Currently this low pressure system does not pose any threat to any island of Vanuatu. Heavy rainfall
and gustily winds is expected over northern islands as the system tracks closer to northern Vanuatu
group in the next 48 hours.
A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu group. See Separate Marine
Warning Bulletin.
The next information on the system will be issued at 6:00am tomorrow or earlier if the situation
changes.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040858 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S
171.3E AT 040600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS/EIR
IMAGERY. TD11F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
ORGANISATION ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 6HRS. TD11F LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
MODERATE LOWER CONVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTH THEN LATER
SOUTHEASTWARDS BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH MAY HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
发表于 2026-4-3 00:29
