LOW - 所罗门群岛以东98P - 10.0S 163.9E

qiqi

98P INVEST 260319 0600 9.7S 163.9E SHEM 15 0
98P INVEST 260319 0600 10.2S 164.0E SHEM 15 1006

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20MAR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 10.7S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC AND ISOLATED
POCKETS OF SHORT-LIVED FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THE
AREA OF CONVECTION (98P) ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTERLY
AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS
SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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pocketbox

Tropical Low 35U
A tropical low may develop in the Coral Sea next week with a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone.

• A tropical low 35U may form in the Coral Sea next week, well offshore from the Queensland coast.
• The environment is somewhat favourable and the system may slowly develop, with a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Monday.
• If 35U does develop it is expected to move to the south or southeast and remain well offshore from the Queensland coast.
  

Last updated
18 minutes ago, 08:56 am UTC

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ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210300Z-210600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 145
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT STEADILY DEVELOPING A LOWER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON FORMATION
TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF
LATER BY 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98P INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT TAKING A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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