ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.9S 152.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOWER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO
THE SOUTH WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AS DEPICTED IN A 012327Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS STRONG FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE,
WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST FURTHER
INTO AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Low 31U
Tropical low 31U a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday.
Tropical low 31U has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday through to Friday if it remains over the Gulf of Carpentaria waters.
This weekend TC ratings will reduce slightly as 31U is likely to move towards the west over land through the Northern Territory and the Kimberley.
By next Monday 31U may be over waters near the Kimberley coast and the tropical cyclone risk increases to Low (10%).
ABPW10 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050300Z-050600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04MAR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 149.9E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0S 137.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(1). WITH 24P
FINAL WARNING INFORMATION AND DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
Tropical Low 31U
Tropical Low 31U a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Low 31U is currently located over land south of the Top End.
In the short-term, 31U may continue tracking west over land through the Northern Territory. Over the weekend, 31U may move back over Gulf of Carpentaria waters briefly, with the tropical cyclone risk increasing to Low.
From next week, 31U may move over waters near the north Kimberley coast however it is more likely to be over land or weakening by mid-week. The tropical cyclone risk is Low for Monday and Tuesday, before decreasing to Very Low from Wednesday.
Tropical Low 31U
Tropical Low 31U a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone early next week.
Tropical Low 31U is currently located over land over the Top End.
Over the weekend, 31U may continue tracking west over land through the Top End and the Kimberley.
From next week, 31U may move over waters near the north Kimberley coast, however it is more likely to be over land or weakening by mid-week. The tropical cyclone risk is Low for Monday and Tuesday, before decreasing to Very Low from Wednesday.
发表于 2026-3-2 09:28
