留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

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WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 23.8S 54.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 54.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 24.4S 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 25.1S 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 26.1S 57.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 27.2S 58.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 54.7E. 03FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 031500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
   
4. 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 54.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 203 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM
    
18. UNDERGOING RAPID VORTEX DECOUPLING, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC) EMERGING OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE OVER
    
20. THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
    
21. WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 031012Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
22. REVEALED THE LLCC ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH SHALLOW BANDING
    
23. FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A SHALLOW VORTEX. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    
24. REVEALS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINTAINING ROBUST
    
25. POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE UPSTREAM PATTERN INDICATES IMPENDING
    
26. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR IS INBOUND. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
27. IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
    
28. ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
29. CONFIDENCE, HEDGED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
    
30. AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
31. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AND ARE CHARACTERIZED AS
    
32. UNFAVORABLE, DRIVEN BY HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, SUB-OPTIMAL SSTS,
    
33. AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 031200Z
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 031200Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 51 KTS AT 031200Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 031013Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 031200Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
51.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
53.    OTHER FACTORS: PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S IS TRACKING
    
66. SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL STR TO THE
    
67. NORTHEAST AND THE TROF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
68. PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL DECELERATE AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS AND BECOMES
    
69. EMBEDDED INTO A WEAKER STEERING GRADIENT BETWEEN TWO REGIONS OF
    
70. LOWER-LEVEL RIDGING. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
    
71. VARIANCE REGARDING THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF TC 19S, ESPECIALLY
    
72. BEYOND TAU 24, CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
    
73. FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER STEERING GRADIENT
    
74. RESULTING IN A STAGNANT TRACK WHILE THE ECMWF RECURVES TC 19S
    
75. SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROUGH AT A HIGHER VELOCITY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY,
    
76. THE SYSTEM HAS INITIATED DECOUPLING DUE TO ADVERSE VWS AND DRY AIR
    
77. INTRUSION. BOTH FACTORS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
    
78. NEXT 24 HOURS, LEADING TO A COMPLETE DISRUPTION OF THE VORTEX
    
79. STRUCTURE. THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT
    
80. SIMULTANEOUSLY UNDERGOES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). CYCLOLYSIS MAY
    
81. OCCUR PRIOR TO FULL STT, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 48.
    
82. 
    
83. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
    
84. (AI) MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT TC 19S WILL TRACK
    
85. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, CROSS- MODEL
    
86. DISCONTINUITY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING TRACK SPEED, PARTICULARLY
    
87. AFTER TAU 24 WHEN THE GFS AND GEFS DIVERGE FROM THE ECMWF, ECENS, AND
    
88. AI GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED NEAR THE GDM ENSEMBLE MEAN
    
89. THROUGH TAU 36, THEN CONVERGES WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN AT TAU 48,
    
90. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS BIFURCATED; THE
    
91. GFS AND COTC INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AB INITIO, WHILE THE HAFS-A
    
92. PROJECTS SLOW WEAKENING TO TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY SPURIOUS INTENSIFICATION
    
93. TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 60. THIS OUTLIER IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO MISS
    
94. MODELED BAROCLINIC FORCING AND IS DEEMED HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE
    
95. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48
    
96. AND THE JTWC FORECAST HEWES TO THIS CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
97. 
    
98. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
99.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
101. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析降至T2.5/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 031523
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 03/1430Z
C. 23.84S
D. 54.98E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
1NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 031804
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 03/1730Z
C. 23.76S
D. 55.03E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 6NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT
YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   03/1448Z  23.78S  54.83E  MMWI
   RUCKER

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 031820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 55.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120

24H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FLUCTUATED
SIGNIFICANTLY. OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, ACTIVITY HAS RETURNED SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, LEAVING A SHEAR CONFIGURATION
THAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS MARKED THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE RECENT ACCELERATION
IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT EXPLAINS THIS IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, SLIGHTLY COUNTERBALANCING THE SHEAR. IN THIS CONTEXT, WITH
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THAT ARE TOO STRONG DUE TO THE INCORRECT LOCATION
OF THE CENTER, WE CAN MAINTAIN AN ESTIMATE OF WINDS OF AROUND 45KT IN
LINE WITH THE CI VALUE OF 3.5-.

FYTIA'S TRACK REMAINS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASING SPEED
UNDER THE MORE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH EAST AND AN ALTITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE BEFORE A NEW ACCELERATION
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, PULLING MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, WITH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BETWEEN
CERTAIN MODELS. FACED WITH SUCH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR A SOUTHEAST EVACUATION DUE TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE SYSTEM THAN IS CURRENTLY ANALYSED IN THE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE STRENGTHENING OF DEEP SHEAR AND THE
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AND LASTING
WEAKENING. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FYTIA IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITHOUT SUSTAINED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS, DUE
TO THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT.
THE REMAINS OF FYTIA SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A
DEPRESSION CORRIDOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK, MERGING WITH THE RAPID
CIRCULATION OF THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 032139
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 03/2030Z
C. 23.68S
D. 54.57E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
28NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-4 05:46
JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPXS10 PGTW 032152
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 03/2031Z
C. 23.94S
D. 55.05E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
5NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5.
DBO PT. REANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 032353
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 23.54S
D. 54.74E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER