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JTWC:REMAINS HIGH
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.2S 160.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHOOTING OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE SUPPORTIVE (27-29C). GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM KICKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EDDYING
SOUTHEAST OF INVEST 90P, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HOG THE ENERGY IN THE
SPCZ AND DEEPEN. AS THE CIRCULATION UPSTREAM DEVELOPS, INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT
INVEST 90P COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A
262149Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-
20KT WINDS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(5-10KTS) WITH DECENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM
GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
DATELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-1-27 15:21
发表于 2026-1-27 16:30
