MEDIUM - 斯里兰卡东南深低压BOB 01(90B) - 北印新风季首旋，西行靠近斯里兰卡

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WTIO21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 84.7E TO 9.4N 81.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 080421Z METOP-C
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 30KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND
25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY TILTING THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND DISRUPTING DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ESPECIALLY, PREDICTING QUICKER AND MORE INTENSE
DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
NNNN

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