科科斯群岛西南三级强热带气旋“詹纳”(11U/12S.Jenna) - JTWC:90KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 08 日 10 时
“詹纳”向西南方向移动

时  间: 8日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “詹纳”，JENNA

中心位置: 南纬18.4度，东经90.9度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 9级，21米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 995百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛西南方向约940公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“詹纳”强度由11级减弱为9级

预报结论: “詹纳”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月8日08时00分）

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0721 UTC 08/01/2026
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jenna
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 90.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (289 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W2.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/1200: 18.0S  89.6E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  999
+12:  08/1800: 17.8S  88.8E:     040 (080):  035  (065): 1000
+18:  09/0000: 17.8S  87.8E:     050 (090):  030  (055): 1005
+24:  09/0600: 17.6S  86.7E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1004
+36:  09/1800:             :              :            :     
+48:  10/0600:             :              :            :     
+60:  10/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  11/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  12/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 13/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Ex-tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) continues to weaken over open waters of the
Indian Ocean.  
Visible imagery shows the exposed centre of Jenna and without any deep
convection near the centre.  
Intensity is analysed at 35 kn based on earlier scatterometry supported by
model guidance.  
Dvorak analysis: No DT given lack of deep convection. MET=1.0 based on a W+
24-hour trend with   0.5 PAT adjustment. FT/CI=1.0/1.5. Objective guidance at
0600 UTC (1-minute mean): ADT 25 kn  AiDT 30 kn, DPRINT 28 kn, SATCON (0145
UTC) 38 kn.
The circulation lacks access to tropical moisture and over  cooler SSTs of
about 26 degrees. Model guidance indicates continuing gales southwest of the
centre for 12-24 h assisted by the motion and synoptic forcing from the ridge
to the south. Steering is becoming more shallow as the system weakens, and the
forecast west northwest movement is due to the mid-latitude ridge to the south.


The system is forecast to move west of 90E out of the Australian Region in the
next six hours.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system

---

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Thursday 8 January 2026

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at 2:00 pm AWST (12:30 pm CCT) near 18.2S
90.3E,
that is 970 km southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving west northwest at 11
kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical cyclone Jenna (11U) is weakening and now moving west northwest over
the Indian Ocean and out of the Australian Region (90E). Gales will persist
southwest of the centre.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.


Headline:
Ex-tropical cyclone Jenna weakening and to move west of Australian region.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jenna 11U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 90.3 degrees East , 970 kilometres southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands .
Movement: west northwest at 11 kilometres per hour .

Ex-tropical cyclone Jenna (11U) is weakening and now moving west northwest over the Indian Ocean and out of the Australian Region (90E). Gales will persist southwest of the centre.


Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 8	tropical low	18.2S	90.3E	35
+6hr	8 pm January 8	tropical low	18.0S	89.6E	60
+12hr	2 am January 9	tropical low	17.8S	88.8E	80
+18hr	8 am January 9	tropical low	17.8S	87.8E	90
+24hr	2 pm January 9	tropical low	17.6S	86.7E	100
+36hr	2 am January 10	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	2 pm January 10	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	2 am January 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 pm January 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 08 日 18 时
“詹纳”向西南方向移动

时  间: 8日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “詹纳”，JENNA

中心位置: 南纬18.2度，东经90.3度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 999百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛西南方向约1040公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“詹纳”强度由10级减弱为8级

预报结论: “詹纳”将以每小时11公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱



图1  卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2026年1月8日14时00分）

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WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 90.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 90.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 18.0S 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.8S 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.8S 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.1S 82.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 89.8E.
08JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z AND 090900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 080900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 90.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 525 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (JENNA) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST
    
18. NORTHWESTWARD AS A DECAYING VORTEX WITH NO CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE
    
19. ACTIVITY PRESENT FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED
    
20. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
21. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES ON THE VISIBLE,
    
22. WEAK LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080248Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING STRONGER WINDS
    
24. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
25. 
    
26. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 080248Z METOP-C ASCAT
    
27. 
    
28. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
    
29. 
    
30. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
31.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
32.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
33.    APRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
34.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 0715Z
    
35.    CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 080645Z
    
36.    CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 080645Z
    
37.    CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 080730Z
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 080645Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
42.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
53. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WILL CONTINUE TO
    
56. TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
57. TO THE SOUTH WHILE BEING WEAKENED BY WESTERLY SHEAR. A CONTINUED
    
58. WEAKENING TREND WILL BE FACILITATED BY PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO DRY
    
59. AIR. WHILE GALES COULD LINGER FOR AS LONG AS 36 HOURS DUE TO
    
60. ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM, THE
    
61. JTWC FORECAST DEPICTS DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU
    
62. 48.
    
63. 
    
64. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK GUIDANCE AMONGST THE MULTI MODEL
    
65. CONSENSUS IS UNDER 100 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECASTED PERIOD WITH A
    
66. FAIRLY EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN MEMBERS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK
    
67. AND THOSE DEPICTING A SOUTHERN TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
68. PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
69. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 15 KTS DISREGARDING THE
    
70. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DEPICTED BY HAFS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
71. FORECAST REFLECTS VALUES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
72. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
73. 
    
74. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
75.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
76.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
77. NNNN

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