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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-2 18:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.6S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.6S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.8S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 109.2E.
02JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457
NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 020900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR
- 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 109.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 457 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (IGGY) HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY
- OVER THE COURSE OF THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY
- REFORMED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AROUND 0000Z,
- BUT WAS RAPIDLY DISPLACED TO THE EAST DUE TO HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR. CURRENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
- DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, AND INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
- REMNANT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MODEL CROSS-
- SECTIONS, AND A 020602Z NOAA-21 ATMS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED SIGNIFICANT
- DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND OVER TOP OF THE NOW
- EXPOSED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROF AXIS
- POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST, PROVIDING THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
- POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS INSUFFICIENT TO COUNTERACT THE
- EFFECTS OF HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI, AS
- WELL AS AN IDENTIFIABLE LLCC IN A 020556Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
- INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW, GIVEN A 020409Z OSCAT-3 PASS WHICH
- SHOWED 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE, WITH HIGH WESTERLY SHEAR,
- SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION, WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A
- TRANSITION IN STEERING INFLUENCE, FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
- (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
- SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 020602Z
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 020540Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 020540Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 020602Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 020610Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
- WEST.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 48
- HOURS.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD
- OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF VISIBLE
- IMAGERY SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS,
- THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BUILDING IN RAPIDLY, PUSHING THE RIDGE
- NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF TC 11S, FACILITATING A MORE
- RAPID TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY
- ANTICIPATED. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
- BUILD EASTWARD, POSITIONING TC 11S ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
- RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD. WHILE THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR AND SHEAR WAS ANTICIPATED, THE
- INCREASE IN BOTH PARAMETERS OCCURRED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
- RESULTING IN LOWER PEAK INTENSITY AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN
- PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
- TO ENCOUNTER HIGH VWS AND INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO AND OVER
- TOP OF THE LLCC. EPISODIC AND BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL
- CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
- TO MAINTAIN A 35 KNOT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48 (IF NOT EARLIER),
- TC 11S WILL DISSIPATE AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT REACH THEIR
- MAXIMUM VALUES.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
- AGREEMENT, ALL MODELS BEING CONSTRAINED TO A 115NM ENVELOPE DEFINED
- BY GFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND NAVGEM ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE
- REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE ECMWF AND
- GDM MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS
- EXCEPT THE HAFS-A INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CULMINATING IN
- DISSIPATION AT TAU 48. THE HAFS-A IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, FORECASTING A
- HIGHER INTENSITY AND MAINTAINING IT AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS. THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-2 15:15
