Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 112244 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.8S
168.2E AT 112100UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 48HRS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING
OBSCURED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH (25-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LACK OF A DISTINCT
LLCC WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 120821 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S
168.0E AT 120600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 36 HRS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 121010 UTC.
****** TD03F CENTER RELOCATED BASED ON HY-2C SCATTEROMETER DATA *****
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.2S
163.6E AT 120600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 36 HRS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 122216 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S
168.9E AT 122100UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 130850 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S
165.5E AT 130600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 132230 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.5S
168.4E AT 132100UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
WTPS21 PGTW 140100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 167.9E TO 14.4S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 168.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH
OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
132123Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS (15-20 KTS) ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
10 TO 15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 94P FURTHER CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHILE
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150100Z.//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER, EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 05-10 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 94P. GFS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, IN STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING 94P AS IT TRACKS TO THE ESE, WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODEL IS DOING A POOR JOB IN INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM AND CARRIES THIS
FORWARD, NOT DEPICTING A CIRCULATION CENTER AT ALL. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS AVAILABLE, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE TRACK
AND INTENSITY TREND IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 140100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
发表于 2025-12-12 08:47
