阿拉弗拉海二级热带气旋“菲纳”(02U/05S.Fina) - 影响澳洲北部 - JTWC:65KT

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IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1307 UTC 20/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.1S
Longitude: 133.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  20/1800: 10.4S 132.9E:     030 (060):  045  (085):  992
+12:  21/0000: 10.6S 132.7E:     040 (075):  050  (095):  988
+18:  21/0600: 10.9S 132.5E:     050 (090):  055  (100):  985
+24:  21/1200: 11.2S 132.1E:     055 (100):  060  (110):  982
+36:  22/0000: 11.6S 131.4E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  981
+48:  22/1200: 12.0S 130.5E:     070 (135):  055  (100):  985
+60:  23/0000: 12.4S 129.7E:     085 (155):  060  (110):  981
+72:  23/1200: 12.7S 128.9E:     095 (170):  065  (120):  978
+96:  24/1200: 13.0S 127.5E:     135 (250):  060  (110):  981
+120: 25/1200: 13.5S 126.4E:     190 (350):  045  (085):  991
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is located to the north of the Top End coast and moving
slowly south. Position is good based on radar.   

DT is difficult due to generally waning convection over the last 6 hours moving
a long way west of the centre. Deep convection has recently recommenced near
the centre but with little curvature, 0.3 deg at best, leading to a DT of 2.0.
A W+ trend over the past 24 hours gives MET 0f 2.0 and PT agrees. FT is 2.0
with CI held at 3.0.

Intensity is 40 knots, based on subjective Dvorak and objective guidance.
Objective guidance (1-min winds) for 1200 UTC: ADT 74 knots, AiDT 65 knots,
DPRINT 39 knots. ADT and AiDT have consistently had estimates significantly
higher than other aids. In the case of ADT, a PMW adjust appears to have led to
the much higher values. Recent RawT numbers around 2.2 supports the notion that
these values may be significant over estimates. Most recent DMINT at 0944 also
estimated 39 knots. No SATCON available since 0630 UTC.

Good agreement with NWP model track for Fina to move generally in a southwest
direction towards the northern coastline of the NT on Friday and then across to
the north of Darwin on Saturday. In the longer term, models continue a west
southwest track taking Fina back over water in the Timor Sea and towards the
northern parts of Western Australia early next week.

Vertical shear is forecast to weaken during Friday and into the weekend, and
Fina is expected to strengthen once more, potentially quite quickly, increasing
to 60 knots before interaction with land inhibits further development. The
supporting factors include warm SST, weakish outflow channel to the southwest
and sufficient moisture, at least in the low levels.

Once Fina moves over the open water of the southern Timor Sea it is expected to
strengthen further to a Severe Tropical Cyclone before drier air and increasing
vertical wind shear from Monday onwards.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC.

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IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 10:08 PM CST on Thursday 20 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is slowly moving south, with impacts for the Northern Territory from early Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Milikapiti to Maningrida, including the Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Warruwi.

Watch zone: Daly River Mouth to Gunbalanya, including Dundee Beach, Darwin, Batchelor, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga about the Tiwi Islands.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 9:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 10.1 degrees South 133.2 degrees East, estimated to be 360 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 135 kilometres north northeast of Minjilang.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 1 cyclone, is moving slowly south and is expected to strengthen to a category 2 system whilst tracking southwest during Friday.

Late Friday, Fina is forecast to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday.

Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon in the southern Timor Sea. There continues to remain a chance that it could reach achieve category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Warruwi tonight, possibly extending to between Milikapiti and Maningrida on Friday morning. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands during late Friday and from Darwin east to Gunbalanya during Saturday. Gales may extend further southwest to Batchelor and Daly River Mouth late on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi on Friday as the system nears the coast, extending to the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday. HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Maningrida from Friday, extending to the coast and nearby inland across the western Top End including Darwin on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for areas across the northwest Top End. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people near and between Milikapiti and Maningrida should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere about the Tiwi Islands and areas between Daly River Mouth and Gunbalanya, including Darwin and Batchelor, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (www.securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am ACST Friday 21 November.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
0 hr	9 pm November 20	1	10.1° S	133.2° E	35 km
+6 hr	3 am November 21	1	10.4° S	132.9° E	60 km
+12 hr	9 am November 21	2	10.6° S	132.7° E	75 km
+18 hr	3 pm November 21	2	10.9° S	132.5° E	90 km
+24 hr	9 pm November 21	2	11.2° S	132.1° E	100 km
+36 hr	9 am November 22	2	11.6° S	131.4° E	120 km
+48 hr	9 pm November 22	2	12.0° S	130.5° E	135 km
+60 hr	9 am November 23	2	12.4° S	129.7° E	155 km
+72 hr	9 pm November 23	3	12.7° S	128.9° E	170 km