墨西哥以南90E - 12.9N 91.8W - NHC:40%

大水台6

EP, 90, 2025100712,   , BEST,   0, 129N,  918W,  25, 1007, DB

---

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a short
distance offshore of Guatemala.  Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more favorable for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, near or parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.  Interests
along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.  Regardless of development, this system is likely to
produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of Guatemala today,
and along the southern coast of Mexico through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Priscilla, located a couple
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located less than one hundred miles offshore of the
Guatemala–Mexico border remain disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development of
this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
near and parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Interests along
the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
periods of heavy rainfall along the southern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

ygsj24

266
ABPZ20 KNHC 080503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Priscilla, located a couple
of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located around 100 miles offshore of the Guatemala–Mexico
border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the
system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance
is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of
the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of
the week, which could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 080700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 93.2W TO 16.0N 96.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 93.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR
14.6N 93.4W, APPROXIMATELY 226NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA,
MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL
FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST NORTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090700Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Priscilla, located a couple
of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
A large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms remains
disorganized near and to the west of a broad area of low pressure
located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the
system remains over water.  The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico, and interests there should
monitor its progress.  Regardless of development, the disturbance
is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of
the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of
the week, which could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Priscilla,
located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large and persistent area of showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in these areas should
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, the system is expected to produce periods of heavy
rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 090700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080651ZOCT25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 96.3W TO 16.7N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.3N 95.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 96.5E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
KNOTS OR LESS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (28-39 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
90E WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PHNC 080700).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100700Z.//
NNNN

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Priscilla,
located a couple of hundred miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

1. South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Interests in these areas should should monitor the progress of this
system.  Regardless of development, the system is expected to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which
could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

WTPZ42 KNHC 091440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

The large area of disturbed weather located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico (Invest 90E) has continued to gain organization.  
Convective banding has become more evident in the southern and
western part of the circulation, and the latest Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T2.0 and T1.5, respectively.  The convective
pattern does suggest that the circulation might still be a bit
elongated, but hourly observations from a cruise ship, the
Norwegian Joy (C6CX3), helped to locate the main center of
circulation, pressure minimum, and estimated winds.  The
circulation and convection are now organized enough to classify the
system as a tropical depression.

The center we're now tracking is somewhat discontinuous from a
feature we were tracking yesterday farther to the east, and the
initial motion is a rough estimate of west-northwestward, or 285/12
kt.  Strong mid-level ridging over northern Mexico and the
south-central U.S. is expected to steer the depression on a quick
west-northwestward to northwestward track during the next 48 hours,
with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico through
late Friday.  The system is then likely to round the western
periphery of the high and move toward the Baja California peninsula
in 2-3 days.  The model guidance is in fairly good agreement for
this first forecast, and the NHC track is close to a blend of the
TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression is being affected by strong easterly shear which is
likely to continue for the next 24 hours.  However, the system is
also over very warm waters (29-30 degrees Celsius), in an
environment of strong upper-level divergence, and moving
quickly, which should all allow for some modest strengthening
during that time.  The NHC forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and close to the HCCA aid in the short term.  Although
the shear is forecast to decrease some after 24 hours, the
mid-level environment is expected to become drier and more stable
while the upper-level winds become more convergent.  Those changes
should induce weakening while the system is approaching the southern
Baja California peninsula.  Although a remnant low point is
provided over northwestern Mexico on day 4, it is likely that the
system will dissipate before that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday.  Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2.  Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will
impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 16.2N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 105.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 19.8N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 21.4N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 23.3N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  12/1200Z 25.5N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  13/1200Z 29.2N 110.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Ragasa

命名Raymond  雷蒙德
-----------------
WTPZ32 KNHC 091749
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
1200 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...RAYMOND FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.0 West. Raymond is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Friday.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected by late Friday, followed by a
northward turn by early Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center
of the storm is expected to move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through Friday and then be near southern Baja
California Sur Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
based on satellite derived winds with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the eastern
part of the watch area later today and could spread westward across
the remainder of the area through late Friday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from the tropical storm will bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday.  Across
coastal portions of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local
amounts of 6 inches or more in Guerrero and Michoacán. This rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.  Moisture from the tropical storm will bring the
potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the
Southwest U.S. early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the storm, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread
westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and
reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly