东太平洋热带风暴“奥克塔夫”(15E.Octave)

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 04 日 18 时
“奥克塔夫”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:     4日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “奥克塔夫”，OCTAVE

中心位置:    北纬14.0度，西经123.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1690公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“奥克塔夫”强度维持

预报结论:   “奥克塔夫”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度略有加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月4日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTPZ45 KNHC 041444
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Octave's overall appearance has remained steady this morning, with
its center embedded within a large area of persistent deep
convection. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass also indicates that the
tropical storm is maintaining a well-organized structure, with
curved bands apparent in the microwave imagery. A blend of
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the
persistence of deep convection throughout the morning, support a
slight increase in the intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving northwestward with an estimated motion of 310/6
kt. This motion is expected to continue today before beginning a
northward and eventually eastward turn later this weekend and early
next week. The precise timing of the eastward turn is somewhat
uncertain, as it depends on the interaction of Octave with Invest
99E to its east and a trough to its north. The NHC track forecast
for this advisory is similar to the prior advisory and represents a
blend of track consensus aids and the faster Google DeepMind
solution.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak for the next 24 h.
Within this narrow window of time, conditions are forecast to
remain marginally favorable for some slight intensification.
However, after 24 h as Octave turns toward the east, wind shear is
expected to increase as the storm interacts with the much larger
system to its east. Late this weekend, Octave is forecast to begin
a weakening trend that will continue throughout the forecast
period. The current NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the prior advisory during the next day or so, and it remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 14.6N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 15.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 15.5N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 16.0N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  07/0000Z 16.0N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 15.2N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 16.2N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Deep convection has continued to pulse today near the center of
Octave. Recent visible and microwave satellite imagery indicates a
well-organized inner-core structure, which was confirmed by a recent
ASCAT scatterometer pass. Based on the current satellite
presentation and a blend of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the intensity is increased slightly to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The storm has begun to turn more northward and is now moving
north-northwestward with an estimated motion of 330/5 kt. A
continued northward and eventual eastward turn is forecast this
weekend and early next week. The track forecast depends somewhat on
the interaction of Octave with Tropical Storm Priscilla to its east
and a trough to its north during the next several days. The NHC
track forecast for this advisory is similar to the prior advisory
and represents a blend of track consensus aids and the Google
DeepMind solution.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak for the next 24 h.
During this period, conditions are forecast to remain marginally
favorable for some slight intensification. However, after 24 h as
Octave turns toward the east, wind shear is expected to increase as
the storm interacts with trough and the larger tropical storm to
its east. Late this weekend, Octave is forecast to begin a
weakening trend that will continue until the system dissipates
after 96 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the prior advisory during the next day or so, and it remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 14.9N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

ygsj24

361
WTPZ45 KNHC 050239
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Octave's organization has held relatively steady since the previous
advisory.  Overshooting cloud tops continue to burst through a
modestly-sized central dense overcast.  An earlier AMSR2 37 GHz
overpass showed a curved band wrapping around the northern and
western quadrants of the storm.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates range from 42 kt to 65 kt, and the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt representing a blend of these values.

The storm is still slowing moving north-northwestward at 4 kt.  A
turn to the north is expected shortly, followed by an accelerated
eastward motion in about 24 hours.  Much of this track prediction
depends on the evolution of Tropical Storm Priscilla, located about
1100 miles to the east of Octave.   The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly north of the previous track forecast due to a more
northward initial position and lies between HCCA and the Google Deep
Mind ensemble mean.

Octave has a short window of 18-24 hours with relatively conducive
atmospheric conditions to intensify.  Weak vertical wind shear and
adequate mid-level moisture should allow Octave to strengthen.  By
Monday, increasing upper-level winds are expected to disrupt
Octave's circulation and induce a gradual weakening trend.  Octave
is still forecast to open into a trough on the southern side of
Tropical Storm Priscilla by the end of the forecast period.  Only
minor adjustments were made to the latest official intensity
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 15.4N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  05/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  06/0000Z 16.2N 123.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  06/1200Z 16.2N 122.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  07/0000Z 16.1N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  07/1200Z 15.9N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  08/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  09/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 05 日 10 时
“奥克塔夫”向西北方向移动

时        间:     5日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “奥克塔夫”，OCTAVE

中心位置:    北纬15.2度，西经124.1度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    997百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1720公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“奥克塔夫”强度略有增强

预报结论:   “奥克塔夫”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度略有加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月5日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave remains a compact tropical
cyclone, with the diameter of its central dense overcast (CDO) near
150 miles. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue near the
embedded center, with cloud-top temperatures occasionally exceeding
−80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are
4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 3.5/55 kt from SAB, while objective
estimates are as high as 60 kt. An ASCAT-B pass at 0534 UTC
depicted the small and compact system, with peak surface winds just
over 50 kt and tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 60 n
mi from the center. A blend of these data supports an initial
intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

Octave is now moving slowly north-northeastward at about 3 kt, and
this motion is expected to continue today while the storm gradually
turns northeastward within a weak steering pattern between an
upper-level trough along the U.S. West Coast and Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla, which is drifting northwestward well to the east off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Beginning Monday, Octave should turn
eastward and gradually accelerate. By midweek, forecast uncertainty
increases significantly as Octave becomes increasingly influenced by
Priscilla’s evolution and track. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus
aids, with Octave expected to dissipate by day 5 (Thursday night) as
it becomes absorbed by the larger Tropical Cyclone Priscilla.

Octave has intensified slightly since the previous advisory, and
with the environment remaining marginally conducive for the next 12
to 18 hours, some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out.
Guidance, however, generally supports the intensity holding steady
during this period, which is reflected in this forecast through the
day today. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, combined with
the interaction with Priscilla, should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Octave is forecast to open up into a trough and be absorbed
by Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast remains close to the previous NHC advisory and near the
middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 15.6N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：王海平  2025 年 10 月 05 日 18 时
“奥克塔夫”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:     5日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “奥克塔夫”，OCTAVE

中心位置:    北纬15.5度，西经124.2度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，32米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    996百帕

参考位置:   距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州马格达莱纳港西南方向约1600公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“奥克塔夫”强度由9级增强至11级

预报结论:   “奥克塔夫”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度略有加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月5日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTPZ45 KNHC 051439
TCDEP5

Hurricane Octave Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Octave has become better organized since the previous advisory, with
banded convection becoming more prominent on the east side of the
center.  A 05/1008 UTC AMSR2 pass showed an eye on microwave
imagery.  Some earlier GOES-18 images from around 1100-1200 UTC
showed a possible eye, but deep, banded convection has covered it up
since that time.  Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
risen to the 60-75 kt range, while the TAFB Dvorak estimate remains
T-4.0/65 kt.  Based on the aforementioned intensity estimates, as
well as the improved inner-core organization as noted on microwave
images, Octave's initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, making it
the ninth hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane season.

Octave appears to be drifting slowly northeastward, or 045 degrees
at 3 kt.  A turn toward the east at a slightly faster forward speed
is expected Monday as the cyclone is pushed in that direction by an
upper-level trough to its northwest.  By early Tuesday, the main
weather feature affecting Octave's track will likely be a large and
powerful Priscilla, which should cause Octave to turn toward the
east-southeast.  By Wednesday, models are in agreement that Octave
should be located south of Priscilla.  Once Octave gets southeast of
Priscilla, an acceleration toward the northeast is expected.  The
new NHC track forecast takes Octave a bit faster toward the east,
but not quite as fast as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA)
model.  The official forecast lies a bit south of the latest Google
Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Octave is currently moving through sea-surface temperatures between
26 and 27 degrees C, and it is forecast to remain over similar water
temperatures for the remainder of its lifetime.  The shear is
expected to remain fairly low for another 24-36 h.  A decent number
of typically reliable intensity models are showing weakening,
especially in the 12 to 36 hour period, so confidence is not very
high as to whether Octave could strengthen slightly, maintain its
intensity, or weaken during the next day or so.  The new NHC
intensity forecast is higher than the previous one (mainly due to
the stronger initial intensity), and is near the higher end of the
guidance over the first day.  By 36 h, increasing easterly shear,
partially the result of the outflow from Priscilla, is expected to
lead to weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope from 36 h onward.  Octave is
forecast to dissipate in 4 to 5 days as it becomes absorbed by the
larger circulation of Priscilla, and the models are in pretty good
agreement on this scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.7N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 15.9N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 16.1N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 15.9N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 15.7N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  08/0000Z 15.3N 118.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 15.3N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052046
TCDEP5

Hurricane Octave Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

The structure of Octave has changed little since the previous
advisory. The low-level center continues to be underneath the
eastern side of the tightly wound curved banding, associated with
the core of the hurricane.  There continues to be hints of an eye
in visible satellite imagery.  Subjective Dvorak estimates are a
consensus 65 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective intensity
estimates range from 55-80 kt.  The initial intensity is held at 70
kt.

The initial motion estimate is slightly faster toward the northeast,
or 055 degrees at 5 kt.  A turn toward the east at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected Monday as the cyclone is pushed in that
direction by an upper-level trough to its northwest.  By early
Tuesday, the main weather feature affecting Octave's track will
likely be a large and powerful Priscilla, which should cause Octave
to turn toward the east-southeast.  By Wednesday, models are in
agreement that Octave should be located south of Priscilla.  Once
Octave gets southeast of Priscilla, an acceleration toward the
northeast is expected until Octave's circulation likely dissipates
in a little less than 4 days.  The NHC forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the north of the previous official forecast through 60
hours, and lies roughly in between the latest GFEX and the Google
Deep Mind Ensemble mean.

Octave is straddling the sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and
is forecast to move parallel to the SST gradient for the next couple
of days, with the eye likely to encounter SSTs in the 26 to 26.5
degree C range.  Wind shear should remain relatively low through the
next 24-36 hours.  Octave is forecast to gradually encounter a
slightly drier and more stable airmass on Monday.  All of the models
show Octave weakening beginning shortly, but given the environmental
conditions, it wouldn't be surprising to see the cyclone maintain
its intensity for another 12-24 h.  The NHC intensity forecast is
near the high end of the model guidance for the first 24 h, then
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.  By 36 h,
increasing easterly shear, partially the result of the outflow from
Priscilla, is expected to lead to weakening.  Model guidance
suggests that either Octave will be absorbed by the stronger
Priscilla or that the outflow from Priscilla will disrupt Octave's
circulation, opening it into a trough.  Regardless of which scenario
occurs, Octave should dissipate within 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 16.0N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 16.2N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 15.7N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  08/0600Z 15.5N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  08/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen