阿拉伯海北部强气旋风暴“沙赫提”(ARB 02/02A.Shakhti) - 将西行回旋 - JTWC:75KT

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WTIO31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 60.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 60.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 19.6N 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.3N 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.0N 60.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 60.2E.
05OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z
AND 062100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 052100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.8N 60.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 92 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
    
18. DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING
    
19. WESTWARD AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
20. CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXTENSIVE
    
21. DRY AIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
    
22. ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
    
24. FROM 49-53 KNOTS.
    
25. 
    
26. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
27. 
    
28. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
29. TO THE WEST AND BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
30. 
    
31. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
32.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
33.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 051500Z
    
34.    CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 051700Z
    
35.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 051730Z
    
36. 
    
37. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
38.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
39.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
40.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
41.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
42. 
    
43. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
44.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
45.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
46.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
47. 
    
48. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
49. 
    
50. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
51. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
52. 
    
53. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS SLOWING AND WILL
    
54. STALL AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
    
55. INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
    
56. AFTER TAU 12, TC 02A WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNDER
    
57. AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, WITH RAPID WEAKENING DUE
    
58. TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS. THE
    
59. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
    
60. 
    
61. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN
    
62. FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
    
63. CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RAPID WEAKENING
    
64. FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND
    
65. SHEAR.  
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
68.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
69.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
70. NNNN

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