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ABPW10 PGTW 172000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/172000Z-180600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17SEP25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.6N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 90W TRACKING NORTH
NORTHWEST WITH GFS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN ECMWF. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 90W TRACKING NORTH NORTHWEST, WHILE ECENS
PROJECTING HIGHER INTENSITY THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.9N 167.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
171013Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS COMING DIRECTLY FROM THE
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST WITH ECMWF BEING MORE INTENSE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W TRACKING WEST WITH
ECMWF HAVING A HIGHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-9-18 04:40
