墨西哥以西热带风暴“朱丽叶”(10E.Juliette)

yhh

92E INVEST 250824 0000 14.1N 105.4W EPAC 25 1007

---

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240541
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 240830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 106.6W TO 19.0N 115.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240821Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 107.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
107.0W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240042Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS,
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE UPON A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250830Z.//
NNNN

菜园子

FNV3 00Z

ygsj24

222
ABPZ20 KNHC 241747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP92):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low-level circulation
associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
mile south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
becoming better defined, and tropical depression or tropical storm
advisories on this system will likely be initiated later today.  The
system is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph for the next couple of days, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

995
WTPZ45 KNHC 242033
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025

Data from both the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers indicate that
the broad area of low pressure located well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation.
The deep convection has been forming a rudimentary banding
structure over the western semicircle of the circulation.  Thus,
the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Ten-E at this
time.  The scatterometer observations indicate that the system is
just below tropical storm strength, and the intensity estimate is
in good agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt.  A
mid-level ridge is expected to remain to the northeast of the
tropical cyclone during the next few days.  This steering pattern
should cause a west-northwestward to northwestward track for most
of the forecast period.  In 4-5 days, the weakening cyclone is
expected turn more westward in the low-level flow.  The official
track forecast lies between the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA,
model and the Google Deep Mind, GDMI, predictions.

The cyclone is currently over warm waters within moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Although the shear is predicted
to lessen over the next couple of days, gradually cooling ocean
waters should partially offset the more conducive wind
environment.  Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast, and
the NHC prediction is roughly in the middle of the model guidance.
Around the end of the forecast period, significantly lower SSTs are
likely to reduce the system to a remnant low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250233
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025

The depression has changed little over the past several hours, and
it continues to maintain a broad structure with numerous bands of
deep convection. The convection, however, is not particularly well
organized and remains confined to the western half of the
circulation due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest
satellite estimates.

Tropical Depression Ten-E is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt on
the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so as the steering
pattern persists.  After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest
and then the north-northwest is forecast as the system moves into a
weakness within the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

The shear over the system is expected to lessen soon, and that
should allow the cyclone to strengthen over the next day or two.
However, any strengthening is likely to be short-lived as the system
is expected to move over sub 26C waters in about 48 hours. The
expected track over cooler water combined with a progressively drier
airmass should cause a weakening trend, and ultimately lead to the
system becoming a post-tropical low in about 4 days.  The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies
fairly close to the IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

264
WTPZ45 KNHC 250835
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025

Since the time of the previous NHC advisory, the sheared convective
burst associated with the tropical cyclone has grown larger, with a
large area of cloud tops colder than -80C on GOES-West infrared
imagery.  Furthermore, the low level center, which had been exposed
to the east of the burst, appears to have moved underneath the
eastern edge of the convection.  This suggests the moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear is weakening.  The UW-CIMSS
objective intensity estimates have been steadily increasing, and
are now in the 32-35 kt range.  TAFB provided a subjective Dvorak
estimate of 35 kt, and an ASCAT pass from 25/0441 UTC showed a few
35 kt vectors in the deep convection that might have been a bit
rain-inflated.  Regardless of the accuracy of the ASCAT data, given
the improving satellite presentation and persistence of the large,
cold convective mass, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm
Juliette with a 35-kt intensity.

Juliette is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt on the south
side of a subtropical high.  This general motion is expected to
continue during the next day or so.  After that time, a gradual
turn to the northwest is forecast as the system is influenced by a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The model guidance has shifted
to the left and a bit faster compared to the previous cycle, and so
has the NHC forecast.  The latest official forecast is in best
agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) model.  Spread
in the model guidance increases by day 3, and the NHC forecast
shows the cyclone slowing down at that time, similar to consensus
aids.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Juliette to strengthen
for at least 36-42 more hours.  The 10-kt northeasterly vertical
shear being experienced by the cyclone should diminish to single
digits later today, while the system traverses warm ocean waters.  
By 48 h, Juliette should reach colder waters and a more stable
atmosphere, and these conditions will induce weakening.  The latest
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and
lies at the high end of the model guidance at 36-48 h.  The reason
for this is that with the shift in the forecast track to the left,
Juliette should have a few additional hours to strengthen before it
reaches the less favorable conditions.  With the decreasing shear
later today, there should be enough time for Juliette to become a
high-end tropical storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 16.8N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen

菜园子

EC、FNV3、EAGLE